NCR Atleos (NATL)
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.09+1.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
NCR Atleos aims to grow revenue to $10 billion by 2027. ATM as a Service grew 30% in 2026-Q1. EPS rose from $0.19 to $0.29 year over year. Management plans to reduce net leverage by 2027.
Revenue growth could slow below 4%. Free cash flow remains weak. Pending merger risks could hurt earnings.
The price is about 19% above our fair value near $38. Analysts expect 4% revenue growth, which we see as reasonable but stretched.
Breaks if: ATMaaS growth falls below 4% YoY in any quarter
Grow the ATM as a Service (ATMaaS) business internationally, including new market expansion in Europe and Latin America.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on achieving significant revenue growth and completing a merger. The current thesis state is cautious, reflecting both positive and negative recent developments.
The market currently prices NATL at a premium compared to its peers, indicating that some growth expectations are already embedded. The valuation suggests that while the company is seen as justified, there is a slight gap in expectations.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue target of $10 billion by 2027, with modest growth observed in recent results. However, the company is still loss-making, which adds a layer of risk to its financial performance.
The long-term thesis hinges on the successful completion of the merger with Brink's and the ability to maintain momentum in the Financials sector. Key factors include the performance of sector bellwethers and any potential guidance cuts from management.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. ATM as a Service grew approximately 30% year-over-year in 2026-Q1 with new market expansion in Europe and Latin America. Self-Service Banking segment growth continued in 2026-Q2, supporting the expansion priority. The trajectory shows delivering growth in ATMaaS globally.
“Self-Service Banking Adjusted EBITDA growth led by ATM as a Service, software, and productivity initiatives.”
“ATMaaS delivered approximately 30% year-over-year growth with new market expansion in Europe and Latin America.”
Breaks if: EPS accretion from transaction is less than 20%
Deliver earnings accretion of at least 35% to EPS as a result of the merger transaction with Brink's.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management expects the merger to be at least 35% accretive to EPS. Diluted EPS increased from $0.29 in 2026-Q1 to $0.86 in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong earnings growth. The trajectory is delivering on EPS accretion expectations ahead of merger close.
“We expect the transaction to be highly accretive to earnings, including at least 35% accretive to EPS.”
“The transaction is expected to be highly accretive to earnings, including at least 35% accretive to EPS.”
“The transaction is expected to be highly accretive to earnings, including at least 35% accretive to EPS.”
Breaks if: Net leverage remains above 3.5x at end of 2027
Reduce net leverage ratio to a target range of 2.0 to 3.0 times by the end of 2027 through improved earnings and cash flow.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management targets net leverage reduction to 2.0-3.0x by 2027 supported by strong free cash flow. Net cash from operating activities improved from -$9 million in 2026-Q1 to $30 million in 2026-Q2, indicating progress. The trajectory shows delivering improvement in cash flow to support leverage reduction.
“We expect higher earnings and cash flow conversion that will allow us to further reduce our net leverage in advance of the anticipated transaction.”
“We anticipate continued sequential growth in earnings and free cash flow, coupled with improved net leverage as we progress through the year.”
“The combination is expected to generate strong free cash flow, enabling rapid reduction of net leverage to 2.0-3.0x by end of 2027.”
Breaks if: Total revenue falls below $9.5 billion in 2027
Grow total revenue to approximately $10 billion by fiscal year 2027 as part of the combined company’s financial targets.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management targets approximately $10 billion in total revenue by 2027, up from 2025 guidance of about $4.3 billion. Revenue grew modestly from $2.08 billion in first half 2025 to $2.14 billion in first half 2026, indicating progress but still early in trajectory toward the $10 billion target.
“We anticipate continued sequential growth in earnings and free cash flow, coupled with improved net leverage as we progress through the year.”
“The combined company is anticipated to generate approximately $10 billion in total revenue.”
“Full Year 2025 Guidance FY 2025 Targets 2025 Initial Guidance 2024 Base Core Revenue 3% to 6% growth constant currency $4,175 million Total Revenue 1% to 3% growth constant currency $4,317 million”
Overall, NATL's trajectory appears cautiously optimistic, but it faces risks that could impact its growth plans. Not investment advice.