Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NCR Atleos (NATL)
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$46.99-0.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.36 → 5.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NATL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ATM as a Service revenue grows about 4% year over year | EPS rose from $0.19 to $0.29 year over year. | Intact | ATMaaS growth falls below 4% YoY in any quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Our service-led growth initiatives and investment in product innovation are encouraging financial institutions and retailers to choose our differentiated and comprehensive offering to meet their evolving self-service needs,” Mr. Oliver concluded.” “ATM as a Service business increased approximately 30% driven by continued growth in North America and Asia, as well as new expansion into Latin America and Europe.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a merger-driven growth thesis, with the Brink’s transaction central to the multi-year view. The thesis is currently intact, though earnings quality is loss-making and management execution is rated neutral.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, despite a valuation measure that points to NATL being cheap versus peers; the evidence is mixed. The expectations gap is close to neutral, and priced-in fragility is low, so the snapshot does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, results have been mixed: NATL had an earnings miss in May and a beat in August, while recent performance remains in the top half of its industry. Revenue rose modestly year over year in the first half of 2026, but the $10 billion 2027 goal remains a large step from 2025 guidance; merger completion is targeted for early 2027, with progress described as mixed. The near-term miss risk is rated low, though peer misses and declining earnings surprises are worth watching.
The multi-year thesis depends on completing the Brink’s merger on schedule and delivering the expected earnings contribution, including at least 35% earnings-per-share accretion. Revenue growth must also build toward management’s 2027 goal. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; broader Financials sector strength is another swing factor, with the snapshot flagging high rates as supportive and sector bellwethers’ results as a possible positive signal.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NATL’s thesis combines merger execution and ambitious growth goals with loss-making earnings quality and expensive valuation. Progress is visible but early, and the view hinges on delivery against management’s targets. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Transaction delivers at least 35% accretion to EPS | A primary condition in NCR Atleos's published investment case. The stated target is >= 35% accretion. | Intact | EPS accretion from transaction is less than 20% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce net leverage ratio to 2.0-3.0x by 2027 | Management plans to reduce net leverage by 2027. | Intact | Net leverage remains above 3.5x at end of 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “In the first nine months, service and software business paced our growth and our productivity efforts more than offset fuel and memory costs and pushed profit margins higher.” “Productivity programs that outpaced war-related pressures and tariff relief allowed profit margins to improve significantly.” Operating income was $183.000 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Grow total revenue to approximately $10 billion by 2027 | NCR Atleos aims to grow revenue to $10 billion by 2027. | Intact | Total revenue falls below $9.5 billion in 2027 | Revenue: $1.099B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $10 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20261,099,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.95 → $5.36 · observed estimates
$4.76B → $4.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.95 | $4,755,478,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.32 | $4,692,489,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.32 | $4,692,489,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.95 | $4,755,478,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.32 | $4,692,489,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.32 | $4,692,489,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.32 | $4,692,489,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.32 | $4,692,489,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.95 | $4,755,478,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.95 | $4,755,478,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.95 | $4,755,478,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.95 | $4,755,478,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.95 | $4,755,478,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.32 | $4,692,489,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.18 | $4,679,541,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.43 | $4,654,420,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.43 | $4,654,420,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.43 | $4,654,420,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.18 | $4,679,541,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.43 | $4,654,420,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.18 | $4,679,541,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.18 | $4,679,541,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.18 | $4,679,541,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.18 | $4,679,541,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.18 | $4,679,541,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.18 | $4,679,541,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.36 | $4,652,227,667 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.