NCR Atleos (NATL)
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$46.09+1.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NATL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NATL — litigation filed
Dated 2026-06-18
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on February 26, 2026, The Brink’s Company, a Virginia corporation (“ Brink’s ”), NCR Atleos Corporation, a Maryland corporation (“ NCR Atleos ”), Novus Merger Sub, Inc., a Maryland corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Brink’s (“ Merger Sub I ”), and Novus Merger Sub II, LLC, a Maryland limited liability company and wholly owned subsidiary of Brink’s (“ Merger Sub II ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (as amended from time to time, the…
Why it matters: Improving net leverage is important for financial health. It helps meet long-term goals.
Supportive ifNet leverage improves to within the 2.0-3.0x target range by the end of 2027.
Worry ifNet leverage stays above 3.0x. There is no improvement.
Why it matters: Litigation may delay or complicate the merger with Brink's. This could affect growth.
Worry ifLitigation results help NCR Atleos. The merger can move forward smoothly.
Less concerning ifLawsuits cause big delays or issues for the merger.
Why it matters: The acquisition could make NCR Atleos' services better. It may also help its market position.
Supportive ifAcquisition closes by the end of Q1 2027 as planned.
Worry ifThe acquisition might have delays. It could also face regulatory issues after the planned date.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good cost management. This supports the merger's financial benefits.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 exceeds a 60% increase year over year.
Worry ifNet income growth is less than 50% year over year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$54 on $10,000 · ±0.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $214 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,491 loss on $10,000 · 14.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slower growth in this area may mean market saturation or more competition.
Worry ifATMaaS revenue growth was below 20% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifATMaaS revenue growth is still above 20% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Regulatory updates will show how the merger is going. Good news could help investors.
Watch forThe merger got regulatory approvals. There are no major conditions.
Also watch forRegulatory bodies may raise concerns. They could add conditions that delay the merger.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows good financial health. It helps fund growth plans.
Supportive ifNet cash from operating activities in Q3 is over $30 million.
Worry ifNet cash from operating activities in Q3 falls below $30 million.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may show less demand in self-service banking.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth was below 5% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth was above 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Completion of the Brink's transaction could enhance offerings and drive growth.
Supportive ifThe Brink's deal is moving ahead. It is going through regulatory and administrative steps.
Worry ifDelays in the regulatory process or failure to close by Q3.
Why it matters: Court cases could delay the merger and affect future growth plans.
Worry ifWinning the court case could help NCR Atleos move forward with the merger.
Less concerning ifNew court cases or problems that make the merger harder.
Why it matters: Lower net leverage shows better financial health and cash flow.
Supportive ifNet leverage reported at 3.0x or below.
Worry ifNet leverage remains above 3.0x.
Why it matters: Closing the merger is key for growth and expanding services. It will combine strengths and create new opportunities.
Supportive ifThe merger will close by the end of Q1 2027. All regulatory approvals are secured.
Worry ifRegulatory delays push the merger closing past Q1 2027.
Why it matters: This shows if the company can maintain momentum in its core business. Growth indicates strong demand.
Supportive ifSelf-Service Banking revenue grows more than 1% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifSelf-Service Banking revenue declines or grows less than 1% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs and better efficiency. This can boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 23% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 23% in Q3.