NCR Atleos (NATL)
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$46.99-0.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NATL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 60 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NATL — litigation filed
Dated 2026-06-18
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on February 26, 2026, The Brink’s Company, a Virginia corporation (“ Brink’s ”), NCR Atleos Corporation, a Maryland corporation (“ NCR Atleos ”), Novus Merger Sub, Inc., a Maryland corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Brink’s (“ Merger Sub I ”), and Novus Merger Sub II, LLC, a Maryland limited liability company and wholly owned subsidiary of Brink’s (“ Merger Sub II ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (as amended from time to time, the…
Why it matters: Network revenue fell 1% in Q2 as crypto transactions slowed. A return to growth would show other volumes can offset that drop.
Supportive ifNetwork revenue grows year over year in a reported quarter.
Worry ifNetwork revenue falls at least 1% year over year for a second straight quarter.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted free cash flow was $16 million after a loss in Q1. More cash could help reduce debt before closing.
Supportive ifA quarter's adjusted free cash flow is above zero, and net leverage falls from the prior quarter.
Worry ifA quarter's adjusted free cash flow is below zero, or net leverage rises from the prior quarter.
Why it matters: ATMaaS grew about 30% in Q1. More growth would show that the service expansion continues.
Supportive ifA company update reports ATMaaS revenue growth of at least 20% year over year.
Worry ifA company update reports ATMaaS revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Both shareholder votes are done, but some approvals remain. A delay could change the deal timeline.
Watch forThe remaining approvals arrive, and the companies close the deal by March 31, 2027.
Also watch forA required approval fails, the deal ends, or closing moves past March 31, 2027.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$58 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $192 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,203 loss on $10,000 · 12.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Recurring revenue made up 70% of Q2 sales. Growth would support the service-led business plan.
Supportive ifQ3 recurring revenue is above $772 million, its Q3 2025 level.
Worry ifQ3 recurring revenue is at or below $772 million.