Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR)

NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04

$10.26-20.09%

Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change

Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR) Outlook: What's Priced In | QuarterlyIQ

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 4, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-5.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.23 → 1.17 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NATR yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $50-$54 million in 2026	Profit targets are $50-$54 million adjusted EBITDA.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $47 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to range between $48 to $52 million ($50 to $54 million prior).” “Outlook Nature's Sunshine continues to expect 2026 net sales to range between $500 - $515 million and adjusted EBITDA to range between $50 - $54 million.”

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.17

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $50-$54 million in 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain stable financial leadership after CFO and CEO changesPublished status: Under Pressure
Achieve 2026 revenue of $500-$515 millionPublished status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NATR is a smaller-cap consumer staples business with a cyclical element, rather than a clear durable compounder or turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, while recent results and management execution leave the near-term picture mixed.

What's priced into Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.

The valuation is cheap versus peers, and the evidence labels current expectations as justified rather than highly fragile. The negative expectations gap points to a gap between the current setup and stronger expectations, but the snapshot does not explain its exact meaning.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals remain in place, but management lowered both ranges after recent softness, and the latest quarter missed. Digital sales grew 26% in the second quarter, while the broader earnings picture remains fragile and a CFO transition adds some uncertainty.

What Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. hinges on

A reversal toward higher guidance next quarter would support the favorable case, while further weakness in employment could deepen recession concerns for cyclical businesses. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers such as KHC, GIS, and SJM would also support the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on NATR stabilizing execution and meeting its revised goals, with digital growth a positive sign but not yet enough to resolve earnings-quality concerns. The evidence is mixed, so the multi-year view remains intact but sensitive to guidance and the broader economic backdrop. Not investment advice.

Development preview · refreshed Nov 5, 2026Open Living FV detail

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.28	$530,818,800	2 / 2
2026-07-25	$1.28	$530,818,800	2 / 2
2026-07-26	$1.28	$530,818,800	2 / 2
2026-07-27	$1.35	$530,826,749	2 / 2
2026-07-28	$1.28	$530,818,800	2 / 2
2026-07-29	$1.28	$530,818,800	2 / 2
2026-07-30	$1.28	$530,818,800	2 / 2
2026-07-31	$1.32	$532,168,800	2 / 2
2026-08-01	$1.35	$530,826,749	2 / 2
2026-08-02	$1.32	$532,168,800	2 / 2
2026-08-03	$1.32	$530,826,550	2 / 2
2026-08-04	$1.32	$532,168,800	2 / 2
2026-08-05	$1.32	$530,826,550	2 / 2
2026-08-06	$1.32	$532,168,800	2 / 2
2026-08-07	$1.32	$530,826,550	2 / 2
2026-08-08	$1.32	$530,826,550	2 / 2
2026-08-09	$1.30	$526,235,850	2 / 2
2026-08-10	$1.30	$526,235,850	2 / 2
2026-08-12	$1.23	$519,185,850	2 / 2
2026-08-13	$1.32	$530,826,550	2 / 2
2026-08-14	$1.32	$530,826,550	2 / 2
2026-08-15	$1.32	$530,826,550	2 / 2
2026-08-16	$1.32	$530,826,550	2 / 2
2026-08-17	$1.32	$530,826,550	2 / 2
2026-08-18	$1.32	$530,826,550	2 / 2
2026-08-19	$1.32	$530,826,550	2 / 2
2026-08-20	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-08-21	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-08-22	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-08-23	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-08-24	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-08-25	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-08-26	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-08-27	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-08-28	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-08-29	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-08-30	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-08-31	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-01	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-02	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-03	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-04	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-05	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-06	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-07	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-08	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-09	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-10	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-11	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-12	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-13	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-14	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-15	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-16	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-17	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-18	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-19	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-20	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-21	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-22	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-23	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-24	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-25	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-26	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-27	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-28	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-29	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-09-30	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-01	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-02	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-03	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-04	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-05	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-06	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-07	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-08	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-09	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-10	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-11	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-12	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-13	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-14	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-15	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-16	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-17	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-18	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-19	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-20	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-21	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-22	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-23	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-24	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-25	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-26	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-27	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-28	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-29	$1.23	$519,200,000	2 / 2
2026-10-30	$1.16	$519,185,849	2 / 2
2026-10-31	$1.16	$519,185,828	2 / 2
2026-11-01	$1.16	$519,185,828	2 / 2
2026-11-02	$1.16	$519,185,828	2 / 2
2026-11-03	$1.16	$519,185,828	2 / 2
2026-11-04	$1.17	$519,185,849	2 / 2

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-06-01	2	0	0
2026-07-01	2	0	0
2026-08-01	2	0	0
2026-09-01	2	0	0
2026-10-01	2	0	0
2026-11-01	2	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded

What could strengthen or challenge Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.’s outlook?

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

What the Thesis Depends On

Incoming Evidence

Expectations trend

Outlook in Brief

What's improving

Still unresolved / key risks

Next proof point

Historical risk context

Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. outlook in detail

What kind of bet this is

What's priced into Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.

What the fundamentals likely do

What Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. hinges on

Bottom line

Analyst view

Price-target changes

Bottom line