Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.02+1.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $50-$54 million in 2026: FY26 EBITDA guidance $48M-$52M vs $50M target.
Nature's Sunshine aims for revenue near $500 million in 2026. Profit targets are $50-$54 million adjusted EBITDA. The company has beaten earnings recently and added a new global CMO. These show potential for steady growth and margin stability.
Recent CFO and CEO departures raise concerns about leadership stability. Guidance was cut despite earnings beats. The sector faces headwinds and the stock is in a 20% drawdown. These risks could hurt growth and profits.
The stock trades about 13% below our fair value near $25. Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth. Our view aligns with this but we note risks from leadership changes and sector headwinds.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $47 million in FY26
Management targets adjusted EBITDA for full year 2026 between $48 and $54 million, with recent guidance narrowing the range.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was $50-$54 million in 2026-Q1 and 2025-Q4, revised down to $48-$52 million in 2026-Q2. Adjusted EBITDA was $14.6 million in 2026-Q1 and $11.3 million in 2026-Q2, flat quarter-over-quarter. The trajectory shows management maintaining the target but lowering expectations, with adjusted EBITDA stable but not growing in Q2.
“Adjusted EBITDA is now expected to range between $48 to $52 million ($50 to $54 million prior).”
“and adjusted EBITDA to range between $50 - $54 million.”
“expects adjusted EBITDA to range between $50 - $54 million.”
Breaks if: Additional CFO or CEO departures occur within next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $476 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the Consumer Staples sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has been mixed and management has lowered guidance.
The market appears to price in a low level of execution quality, suggesting that while NATR is considered cheap compared to its peers, there is an expectation of fragility in its operations. The expectations gap indicates that the market anticipates some challenges ahead.
Fundamentals may remain stable but face risks due to recent earnings misses and a downward revision in guidance. Management's focus on digital sales is a positive sign, but overall performance is fragile.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to reverse the recent trend and raise guidance in upcoming quarters. Additionally, broader sector performance and inflation trends will play a critical role in shaping NATR's outlook.
In the next 1 to 3 years, NATR's performance will depend on management execution and external economic factors. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company improved its gross profit margin through cost savings. However, it cut its 2026 revenue outlook to $490 million to $500 million. This change raises concerns about its growth objectives.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.