Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$12.84+6.38%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NATR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NATR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
and the exhibit hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. The press release furnished herewith makes reference to non-GAAP financial information, which the Company's management believes assis…
Why it matters: Management cited China softness when it cut its 2026 sales outlook. A sales rebound would ease pressure on the new range.
Supportive ifQ3 Asia sales rise from last year. Management says China sales have improved.
Worry ifQ3 Asia sales fall year over year, or management says China sales remain weak.
Why it matters: The August outlook fell from $500M–$515M after China sales softened. Q3 sales will show whether that cut was enough.
Watch forQ3 net sales rise year over year, and management keeps its $490M–$500M full-year range.
Also watch forQ3 net sales fall year over year, or management cuts the full-year range below $490M.
Why it matters: Digital sales helped North America grow, and the company is investing in digital tools. A slowdown would weaken this growth signal.
Supportive ifQ3 digital sales grow year over year, and North America sales also rise.
Worry ifQ3 digital sales fall from last year, or North America sales turn negative from last year.
Why it matters: Cost savings and product mix lifted gross margin in Q2. A further gain would show those efforts are still helping.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin is above 73.7% and management cites cost savings or product mix.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is below 71.7%, the level reported in Q2 2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $367 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,676 loss on $10,000 · 56.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA stayed flat at $11.3M in Q2, and its full-year range fell. Q3 results will test that outlook.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA grows year over year, and management keeps its $48M–$52M full-year range.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA falls year over year, or management cuts the full-year range below $48M.