Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. (NATR)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.02+1.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NATR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NATR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
and the exhibit hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), and shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. The press release furnished herewith makes reference to non-GAAP financial information, which the Company's management believes assis…
Why it matters: Reaching this goal would show good efficiency. It would help meet the annual EBITDA goal.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 at $12 million or higher.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 2026 is less than $10 million.
Why it matters: The CFO change could affect financial strategies and future guidance. This is important for investor confidence.
Watch forThe new CFO has a good outlook on finances.
Also watch forThe new CFO gives cautious or negative guidance.
Why it matters: If revenue guidance stays below $490 million, it shows ongoing sales challenges. This could impact investor confidence.
Worry ifManagement says Q3 revenue will be less than $490 million.
Less concerning ifManagement says Q3 revenue will be more than $490 million.
Why it matters: The CFO change may affect financial plans and how investors feel.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a new CFO with a strong track record.
Less concerning ifNo new CFO has been chosen. This creates uncertainty about who will lead finances.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$123 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $382 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,036 loss on $10,000 · 50.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting this growth target would indicate strong demand and support the full-year revenue goal.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net sales growth of 9% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net sales growth below 7% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: The new CFO's plans could affect financial stability and growth.
Watch forA press release explains the new CFO's plans.
Also watch forNo communication or clarity on the new CFO's plans within three months.
Why it matters: Growth in the digital channel is key for sales and gaining new customers.
Supportive ifDigital sales growth of 10% or more compared to the previous quarter.
Worry ifDigital sales grew less than 5%. This shows possible issues with consumer engagement.
Why it matters: If guidance gets better or stays the same, it means sales are coming back after a drop.
Supportive ifManagement raises Q3 net sales guidance back to $500 million or higher.
Worry ifManagement cuts Q3 net sales guidance to below $490 million.
Why it matters: Going above this level means better profits and smoother operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was above $14 million for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $11 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping this growth rate shows strong customer interest and good digital plans.
Supportive ifDigital sales growth reported above 20% in Q3.
Worry ifDigital sales growth reported below 15% in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin shows good cost control and pricing plans.
Supportive ifGross profit margin reported above 73% for Q3.
Worry ifGross profit margin reported below 72% for Q3.
Why it matters: A new CFO may bring fresh strategies that could influence future performance.
Watch forNew CFO implements a strategic plan that leads to improved financial results.
Also watch forNo clear changes in financial strategy or results after the CFO change.