Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Nautilus Biotechnology Inc (NAUT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.15-6.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NAUT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating expenses growth within 15-20% year over year | A primary condition in Nautilus Biotechnology Inc's published investment case. The stated target is 15-20% growth YoY. | Intact | Operating expenses growth exceeds 20% year over year in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not an established compounder: the company is still loss-making and its platforms remain at an early commercial stage. The long-term thesis is insufficiently clear from the limited performance history, although confidence in the evidence has risen to medium.
The evidence snapshot does not include valuation or market expectations, so whether the shares are cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. A recent earnings beat is noted, but the evidence does not show what expectations were already reflected in the valuation.
Over the near term, reported revenue remained $0.2 million in both 2026-Q2 and 2026-Q3, while operating expenses rose from $15.9 million to $16.9 million. Management reports development progress and retains a mid-2027 availability plan for Voyager, but commercial scale remains limited and expense control is mixed.
The multi-year view depends on whether the proteoform portfolio and Voyager platform progress from development milestones to meaningful commercial activity. Near-term risks include a guidance cut and weaker jobs data; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
NAUT's long-term thesis remains early and high-risk: development is advancing, but losses, limited revenue, and rising expenses leave commercial execution as the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Nautilus Biotechnology Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue grows above $700K in FY26 and $7.65M in FY27. |
| Broken |
| Revenue fails to grow beyond $700K in FY26 or $7.65M in FY27 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain investment in R&D despite losses | Nautilus invests in R&D despite losses. | Intact | Net losses increase significantly beyond -$14.7M in 2026-Q1 | Net income: $-15.636M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Net losses remain near -$14.7M in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 27, 2026-15,636,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.52 → $-0.48 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.52 | $7,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.52 | $7,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.52 | $7,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.52 | $7,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.52 | $7,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.52 | $7,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.52 | $7,650,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.52 | $6,100,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.52 | $5,380,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.52 | $5,160,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.48 | $5,766,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.48 | $5,766,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.48 | $5,766,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.48 | $5,766,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.48 | $5,766,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.48 | $5,766,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.48 | $5,766,750 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.48 | $5,766,750 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.