Nautilus Biotechnology Inc (NAUT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.90-1.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NAUT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers
Why it matters: If the health care sector's revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Nautilus. This would signal a better environment for growth.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to 10% or more.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down below 10%.
Why it matters: Earnings beats can boost investor confidence and stock performance.
Supportive ifFuture earnings reports may show better results than what analysts expect.
Worry ifEarnings reports often fall short of what analysts expect.
Why it matters: If expenses grow too fast, it may show financial problems and hurt cash flow.
Worry ifOperating expenses grow by more than 20% year over year in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses stay the same or go down year over year.
Why it matters: The AKT1 assay joining the program shows progress in Nautilus's product plans.
Supportive ifThe AKT1 proteoform assay will join the Iterative Mapping Early Access Program by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe AKT1 proteoform assay's entry into the early access program is delayed beyond 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$332 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,087 loss on $10,000 · 10.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,844 loss on $10,000 · 78.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Continued R&D investment is crucial for long-term growth. It shows commitment to innovation.
Supportive ifR&D spending remains stable or increases despite ongoing net losses.
Worry ifR&D spending drops a lot while the company has net losses.
Why it matters: More revenue from early access programs shows demand for Nautilus's proteoform assays. This may mean a good market entry.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue from early access programs grows by over 50% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifRevenue from early access programs remains flat or declines compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Nautilus's revenue growth shows strong demand for its proteoform applications. This supports their market strategy.
Supportive ifIn Q3 2026, the Iterative Mapping Early Access Program made more than $0.5 million.
Worry ifRevenue from the program remains below $0.2 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This program is important for proving Nautilus's technology. It can help gain more customers. Early success may lead to wider use.
Supportive ifMore customers are joining the Early Access Program. This includes more than Baylor College of Medicine.
Worry ifNo new customers or delays in the Early Access Program rollout.
Why it matters: The launch of the Voyager platform is crucial for Nautilus's commercial growth.
Supportive ifThe Voyager platform launch will be officially announced in early 2027.
Worry ifThe Voyager platform launch is postponed or further delayed beyond early 2027.