Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.21+1.92%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.96 → 3.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NBHC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
stable dividend payout | The bank pays a stable dividend of $0.32 per share. | Intact | dividend cut below $0.32 per share | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a bank earnings-recovery and execution thesis, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: recent results are below the industry cohort, but the evidence does not show a fresh break in the multi-year view.
NBHC is cheap versus peers, and the model describes expectations as below its baseline. Recent valuation fell sharply, while the priced-in assessment says the full combination of weak execution, expensive valuation, and market turbulence is not concentrated here. That leaves room for business execution to matter, but the evidence does not establish that the shares are broadly mispriced.
Near term, earnings and credit quality are under pressure: NBHC reported a net loss of $8.8 million, diluted earnings per share of negative $0.20, higher provision expense, and a rise in non-performing loans. The next earnings report carries risk after a recent miss, while completion of Vista systems integration and a small linked-quarter decline in adjusted expenses offer limited evidence of progress. Management has stated a fourth-quarter earnings goal, but it has not yet been demonstrated.
The multi-year view hinges on whether NBHC can meet its fourth-quarter earnings goal and sustain credit discipline as provisions and non-performing loans rise. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; rate cuts could also weigh on the sector, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum. These are possible scenarios, not established outcomes.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NBHC’s thesis remains uncertain: peer-cheap valuation and integration progress face fragile earnings quality, volatile management execution, and worsening recent credit indicators. The next earnings update and evidence on credit costs will be important to the long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The bank pays a stable dividend of $0.32 per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $3.47 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.20 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.47 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026-0.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
manage debt and off-balance sheet obligations | A supporting condition in National Bank Holdings Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is no significant increase in debt or off-balance sheet obligations. | Intact | material increase in debt or off-balance sheet obligations | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
total revenue growth | A primary condition in National Bank Holdings Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=10.7% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 10.7% YoY next year | Revenue growth: 9.41% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10.7% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 3, 20269.409365 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.14 → $3.94 · observed estimates
$0.58B → $0.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.14 | $581,568,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.98 | $574,638,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.98 | $574,638,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.98 | $574,638,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.98 | $574,638,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.93 | $572,363,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.95 | $573,523,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.95 | $573,523,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.95 | $573,523,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.95 | $573,523,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.95 | $573,523,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.95 | $573,523,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.95 | $573,523,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.95 | $573,523,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.95 | $573,523,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.96 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.96 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.96 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.96 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.96 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.96 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.96 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.95 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.95 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.95 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.95 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.95 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.95 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.95 | $574,273,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.95 | $574,023,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.95 | $574,023,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.95 | $574,023,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.95 | $574,023,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.95 | $574,023,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.95 | $574,023,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.95 | $574,023,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.95 | $574,023,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.95 | $574,023,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.95 | $574,023,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.95 | $574,023,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.95 | $574,023,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.95 | $574,023,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.92 | $565,573,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.92 | $565,573,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.95 | $573,573,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.95 | $573,573,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.95 | $573,573,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.94 | $570,382,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.94 | $570,382,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.