National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.07+0.50%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NBHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
NBHC — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-04
Other Events . On August 4, 2026, the Board of Directors of National Bank Holdings Corporation (the “Company”) declared a cash dividend on the Company’s Class A common stock (“Common Stock”) of thirty-two cents ($0.32) per issued and outstanding share of Common Stock. The cash dividend will be payable on September 15, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on August 28, 2026. All subsequent dividends are subject to review and approval by the Company’s Board of Directors in it…
Why it matters: Integrating Vista Bank is important for growth. It will help with operations too.
Watch forQ2 results show better efficiency after the acquisition. This means the integration is working.
Also watch forQ2 results show worse efficiency ratios. This points to problems with the integration.
Why it matters: If EPS grows by about 17%, it shows good earnings growth. This means the company is doing well.
Supportive ifFY 2026 EPS growth reported at or above 17%.
Worry ifFY 2026 EPS growth reported below 17%.
Why it matters: More buybacks show strong capital use and faith in future growth.
Supportive ifShare buybacks reported above $11.1 million in a quarter.
Worry ifShare buybacks reported below $11.1 million.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth is key to meeting management's goal of over $1.00 EPS in Q4.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share exceeds $0.72, confirming growth trajectory.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share falls below $0.72, suggesting growth may not be on track.
Why it matters: An increase in the dividend would signal confidence in cash flow and future earnings.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a higher dividend than $0.32 per share.
Worry ifNo change or a decrease in the dividend from $0.32 per share.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal a broader slowdown affecting NBHC's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the bank's performance is improving or declining. This is key for investors.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) exceeds $0.32, showing strong performance.
Also watch forEPS is below $0.32. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: More non-performing loans could mean weaker credit quality.
Worry ifNon-performing loans are more than 0.31%.
Less concerning ifNon-performing loans remain at or below 0.31%.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show financial health. They also show management's confidence in future earnings.
Watch forBoard announces an increase in the dividend payout from $0.32.
Also watch forThe board cuts the dividend from $0.32. This may mean financial problems.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company wants to give value back to shareholders.
Watch forDividend payment of $0.32 per share is made as scheduled.
Also watch forThe dividend payment is late or canceled.
Why it matters: If loan growth is above 12%, it shows strong demand. It also shows Vista Bank is integrating well.
Supportive ifLoan growth reported above 12% annualized in Q2.
Worry ifLoan growth reported below 10% annualized in Q2.
Why it matters: Surpassing $1.00 EPS in Q4 would confirm management's growth strategy is on track. It shows strong earnings momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share reported above $1.00.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $1.00.
Why it matters: An increase in net charge-offs could signal weakening credit quality. This is important for risk management.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are below 0.30%.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are above 0.30%.
Why it matters: Successful integration will expand NBHC's footprint and support growth. It is crucial for long-term value.
Supportive ifCompletion of core systems integration by end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifLook for delays or problems in the integration.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$80 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $233 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,441 loss on $10,000 · 14.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.