National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.21+1.92%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NBHC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NBHC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-27
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions. * On October 27, 2026, National Bank Holdings Corporation (“NBHC”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The sale covers about $0.2 billion in loans and deposits. The bank also set a minimum deposit premium of $8.8 million.
Supportive ifThe sale closes by mid-2027 and the bank receives at least the $8.8 million minimum deposit premium.
Worry ifThe sale does not close by mid-2027, or the stated minimum deposit premium is not met.
Why it matters: Non-performing loans rose from 0.31% to 0.44% of loans in Q3. A further rise would show credit trouble is spreading.
Worry ifNon-performing loans exceed 0.44% of total loans in a later quarter.
Less concerning ifNon-performing loans fall below 0.44% of total loans in a later quarter.
Why it matters: Management set a goal of at least $1.00 per share for Q4. The result will test whether earnings recover after the Q3 loss.
Supportive ifQ4 diluted EPS is at least $1.00.
Worry ifQ4 diluted EPS is below $1.00.
Why it matters: These loan types drove $40.6 million in Q3 provision costs. Further write-downs would point to more credit stress.
Worry ifA later report shows new losses on franchise or healthcare loans. It also shows provision expense above $40.6 million in one quarter.
Less concerning ifProvision expense falls below $40.6 million, with no new write-downs tied to franchise or healthcare loans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$70 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $202 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,113 loss on $10,000 · 21.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.