Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$159.76-3.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.64 → 9.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 15 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NBIX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt from acquisition and secure $1 billion credit facility | A supporting condition in Neurocrine Biosciences's published investment case. The stated target is Credit facility secured and manageable debt levels. | Intact | Debt levels become unsustainable or credit facility not secured | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NBIX is a growth-oriented healthcare business, with recent growth from INGREZZA, CRENESSITY, and VYKAT XR. Its one-to-three-year thesis is intact, and recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry. Management is on track with commercial growth and Soleno integration, while pipeline execution is mixed.
The evidence describes NBIX as cheap versus peers, but also reports an 0.82 premium versus peers and an expectations gap of -0.58. These valuation signals are mixed, so the overall priced-in tag is justified rather than clearly cheap or expensive. The model has medium confidence, and no fragility gates have fired.
Near term, revenue growth has been strong: second-quarter 2026 revenue was up 39% year over year, and VYKAT XR contributed $54 million in net product sales after the Soleno acquisition. Management raised guidance on July 30, 2026, and the latest event was an earnings beat, though the evidence flags a possible credibility risk if guidance is later cut. Over the multi-year view, Phase 3 programs are advancing with increased research spending, but pipeline progress is mixed and industry peers have recently missed.
The key company-specific test is whether NBIX sustains growth and avoids reversing its recently raised guidance. The broader setting also matters: weakening jobs data could weigh on healthcare names, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers such as VRTX, REGN, and MRNA could support sector momentum. Evidence on the pipeline is limited to steady progress and mixed status, so its longer-term contribution remains uncertain.
For the next one to three years, NBIX’s thesis rests on continued commercial growth, successful integration of Soleno, and credible execution on guidance, with the pipeline and sector backdrop as swing factors. Recent results support an intact thesis, but evidence strength is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Neurocrine Biosciences's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue growth >= 28% YoY. |
| Intact |
| Revenue growth falls below 20% YoY in FY26 |
Revenue growth: 41.24% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue growth >= 28% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 202641.237892 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue near $2.75 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Neurocrine Biosciences's published investment case. The stated target is ~$2.75 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.5 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.123B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.75 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 20261,122,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete Soleno acquisition to expand rare disease portfolio | The Soleno acquisition expands rare disease products. | Intact | Acquisition fails or is reversed | Acquisition completed May 18, 2026 vs mid-2026 target May 18, 2026 8-K confirms merger closing. Q3 2026 earnings beat and double-digit 2027 volume guidance reinforce thesis. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Recent Clinical and Corporate Developments • In May 2026, acquired Soleno Therapeutics for $53.00 per share in cash, representing a total transaction equity value of $2.9 billion.” “(Nasdaq: NBIX) today announced the completion of its acquisition of Soleno Therapeutics, Inc., strengthening the company’s leadership in endocrinology and rare disease.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.66 → $9.78 · observed estimates
$4.49B → $4.54B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.66 | $4,487,542,430 | 15 / 23 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.66 | $4,494,291,950 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.99 | $4,421,579,521 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.99 | $4,421,579,521 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.66 | $4,494,291,950 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.66 | $4,494,291,950 | 15 / 22 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.01 | $4,419,110,290 | 14 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.86 | $4,447,771,402 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.86 | $4,447,771,402 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.18 | $4,568,440,160 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.79 | $4,505,857,805 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.18 | $4,568,440,160 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.79 | $4,505,857,805 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.79 | $4,505,857,805 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.79 | $4,505,857,805 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.17 | $4,568,440,160 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.17 | $4,568,440,160 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.17 | $4,568,440,160 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.17 | $4,568,440,160 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.17 | $4,568,440,160 | 17 / 23 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.79 | $4,505,857,805 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.79 | $4,505,857,805 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.79 | $4,505,857,805 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.79 | $4,505,857,805 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.79 | $4,505,857,805 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.79 | $4,505,857,805 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.75 | $4,529,820,755 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.75 | $4,529,820,739 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.75 | $4,529,820,739 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.75 | $4,529,820,739 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.75 | $4,529,820,739 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.75 | $4,529,820,739 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.75 | $4,529,820,739 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.75 | $4,529,820,739 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.75 | $4,529,820,739 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.75 | $4,500,585,787 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.75 | $4,500,585,787 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.75 | $4,500,585,787 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.75 | $4,500,585,787 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.75 | $4,500,585,787 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.75 | $4,500,585,787 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.75 | $4,500,585,787 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.75 | $4,502,932,857 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.75 | $4,502,932,857 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.75 | $4,502,932,857 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.75 | $4,502,932,857 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.75 | $4,502,952,315 | 14 / 18 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.75 | $4,502,952,315 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.75 | $4,502,952,315 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.75 | $4,502,952,315 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.75 | $4,502,952,315 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.75 | $4,502,952,315 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.75 | $4,502,952,315 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.75 | $4,502,952,315 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.75 | $4,502,965,094 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.75 | $4,502,965,094 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.75 | $4,502,965,094 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.75 | $4,502,965,094 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.75 | $4,502,965,094 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.75 | $4,502,965,094 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.71 | $4,497,734,511 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.71 | $4,497,734,511 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.71 | $4,497,734,511 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.71 | $4,497,734,511 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.71 | $4,497,734,511 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.71 | $4,497,734,511 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.64 | $4,498,988,596 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.64 | $4,498,988,596 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.64 | $4,498,988,595 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.64 | $4,498,988,595 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.64 | $4,498,988,595 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.64 | $4,498,988,595 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.64 | $4,498,988,595 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.64 | $4,498,988,595 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.64 | $4,498,988,595 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.64 | $4,498,988,595 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.64 | $4,501,227,512 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.64 | $4,501,227,512 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.66 | $4,501,227,512 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.66 | $4,501,227,512 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.72 | $4,519,276,995 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.72 | $4,519,276,037 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.72 | $4,519,276,037 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.72 | $4,519,276,037 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.72 | $4,519,276,037 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.72 | $4,520,242,704 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.72 | $4,520,242,704 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.72 | $4,520,242,704 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.67 | $4,520,155,037 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.67 | $4,520,155,037 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.67 | $4,520,155,037 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.63 | $4,520,155,037 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.63 | $4,520,155,037 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.63 | $4,520,155,037 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.63 | $4,520,155,037 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.63 | $4,520,175,870 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.63 | $4,520,175,870 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.57 | $4,514,172,835 | 15 / 18 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.57 | $4,514,172,835 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.54 | $4,511,764,835 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.54 | $4,511,764,835 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.77 | $4,530,838,792 | 15 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.78 | $4,541,469,451 | 14 / 19 |
| 2026-11-05 | $9.78 | $4,541,469,451 | 14 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 25 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 7 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.