Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$159.76-3.79%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NBIX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 19.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 116 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NBIX — officer change
Dated 2026-09-28
Chief Medical Officer — Sanjay Keswani, M.D.: The departure of the Chief Medical Officer was a mutually agreed transition with a named internal successor, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Management raised its 2026 INGREZZA sales range to $2.825 billion–$2.875 billion. Q3 sales help show whether demand can support it.
Watch forQ3 results keep 2026 INGREZZA sales guidance at $2.825 billion–$2.875 billion or raise it.
Also watch forQ3 results cut 2026 INGREZZA sales guidance below $2.825 billion.
Why it matters: The planned readout tests a key part of the muscarinic drug program. A clear result can show whether it may help adults with schizophrenia.
Watch forThe Phase 3 study meets its primary endpoint in adults with schizophrenia.
Also watch forThe study misses its main goal, or management reports a delay past 2027.
Why it matters: Management named this readout as a key 2027 milestone. The result will test whether the drug shows benefit in major depression.
Watch forThe Phase 3 study meets its main goal in major depressive disorder.
Also watch forThe study misses its main goal, or management reports a delay past 2027.
Why it matters: Neurocrine raised both R&D and SG&A ranges after the Soleno deal and added product launches. The next report will show whether spending stays within plan.
Worry ifFull-year GAAP R&D stays at or below $1.325 billion and GAAP SG&A stays at or below $1.600 billion.
Less concerning ifManagement raises full-year GAAP R&D above $1.325 billion or GAAP SG&A above $1.600 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$93 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $346 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,715 loss on $10,000 · 27.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: VYKAT XR added $54 million in Q2 after the May acquisition. Later sales show how the product performs in a full quarter under Neurocrine.
Watch forQ3 VYKAT XR net sales reach at least $94 million, the Q2 full-quarter pro forma figure.
Also watch forQ3 VYKAT XR net sales fall below $54 million, the reported Q2 amount.