Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$155.64-1.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NBIX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -23.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers
NBIX — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-05-18
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On May 14, 2026 (the “ Closing Date ”), the Company entered into a credit agreement (the “ Credit Agreement ”) with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent and collateral agent (in such capacities, the “ Agent ”), and the lenders party thereto. The Credit Agreement provides for a five-year, $1.0 billion senior secured revolving credit facility (the “ Revolving Credit F…
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth will show if Neurocrine's growth plan works after the acquisition.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, net product sales were over $850 million, up more than 40% from last year.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, revenue growth is below 30% from last year, showing possible market issues.
Why it matters: Higher R&D spending may show aggressive pipeline growth or financial pressure.
Worry ifR&D expenses reported above $1.325 billion for full year 2026.
Less concerning ifR&D expenses remain at or below $1.325 billion for full year 2026.
Why it matters: Using the credit shows how Neurocrine manages its money after the buy.
Watch forManagement says they are using the credit for smart investments or buys.
Also watch forNo news on credit use or signs of financial trouble.
Why it matters: Good results could help Neurocrine's products. This may make investors more confident.
Supportive ifThey shared good Phase 3 trial results for osavampator. This is for major depressive disorder.
Worry ifThey announced bad Phase 3 trial results for osavampator.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $324 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,090 loss on $10,000 · 20.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal challenges in the market or company performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth is under 10% year-over-year in the next quarters.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Getting this facility will help Neurocrine have money for growth plans.
Supportive ifNeurocrine has set up a $1 billion credit line.
Worry ifNeurocrine may not finalize the credit line or delay the news.
Why it matters: Good results could help Neurocrine grow its treatments for schizophrenia.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of positive Phase 2 trial results for NBI-1117570.
Worry ifBad trial results or delays in sharing outcomes.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition will help Neurocrine in rare diseases. It adds VYKAT XR, a key treatment for Prader-Willi syndrome. This boosts growth chances.
Supportive ifThe acquisition is done. VYKAT XR is now part of Neurocrine's portfolio.
Worry ifThe acquisition has delays from regulators or does not close as planned.
Why it matters: A drop in CRENESSITY sales growth may show problems with market acceptance.
Worry ifQ3 CRENESSITY net product sales growth was below 80% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 CRENESSITY net product sales growth was above 80% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth will prove the acquisition is good. It will also help revenue.
Supportive ifVYKAT XR net product sales exceed $100 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifVYKAT XR sales fall below $50 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If INGREZZA sales growth slows, it may mean less demand or more competition.
Worry ifQ3 INGREZZA net product sales growth below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 INGREZZA net product sales growth of 15% or more year over year.
Why it matters: More spending on R&D may show strong pipeline investment but could hurt margins.
Worry ifQ3 GAAP R&D expenses exceed $327 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 GAAP R&D expenses are $327 million or lower.