Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-01 · fmp
National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.62+3.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.04 → 0.02 EPS · FY ending Jan 1, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NCMI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend of $0.03 per share | The company keeps paying a dividend of $0.03 per share. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.03 per share | Dividend per share: $0.03 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.03 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 20260.03 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-01 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making business in a sector facing headwinds, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in watch mode: recent momentum improved, but financial performance remains weak relative to the industry.
The valuation evidence points to NCMI being cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning expectations appear cautious. The valuation model has medium confidence, and the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified with low fragility.
Near term, revenue reached $58.4 million in Q2 2026, within management’s stated range, and the cost program remains on track for $11 million in annualized savings. The Captivate acquisition expands the platform, but the evidence rates its status as mixed; losses, weak recent performance, and a 49% estimated miss probability remain important risks into the next results.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether the larger platform and cost savings translate into stronger financial performance. Near term, a guidance cut would add pressure, while easing rates or continued strength among sector peers could provide a favorable backdrop.
NCMI has shown execution on revenue, cost savings, and its acquisition plan, but it remains loss-making with high risk and weak performance relative to peers. The 1-3 year view hinges on whether these changes improve results without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It targets positive adjusted OIBDA of $1 million to $5 million in Q2. |
| Intact |
| Adjusted OIBDA falls below $1 million in 2026-Q2 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “1 Q2 2026 Outlook For the second quarter of 2026, NCM LLC expects to earn total revenue of $57.0 million to $63.0 million and Adjusted OIBDA in the range of $1.0 million to $5.0 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Revenue of $57M to $63M in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in National CineMedia, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $57 million and <= $63 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $57 million in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $58.4M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $57 million and <= $63 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 11, 202658,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Q2 2026 Results Total revenue for the second quarter ended July 2, 2026 increased 12.7% to $58.4 million as compared to $51.8 million for the second quarter of 2025.” “1 Q2 2026 Outlook For the second quarter of 2026, NCM LLC expects to earn total revenue of $57.0 million to $63.0 million and Adjusted OIBDA in the range of $1.0 million to $5.0 million.” Revenue was $58.400 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.10 → $0.02 · observed estimates
$0.28B → $0.29B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.10 | $276,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.06 | $272,440,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.06 | $272,440,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.06 | $272,440,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.06 | $272,440,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.06 | $272,440,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.06 | $272,440,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.06 | $272,440,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.06 | $272,440,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.06 | $272,440,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.06 | $272,440,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.06 | $272,440,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.06 | $272,440,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.06 | $272,440,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.04 | $271,460,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.04 | $272,360,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.04 | $272,360,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.04 | $272,360,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.04 | $272,360,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.04 | $272,360,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.04 | $272,360,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.04 | $272,360,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.02 | $271,420,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.02 | $288,820,000 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.