National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.62+3.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NCMI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -53.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 34.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 88.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 6 industry peers
NCMI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-21
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 18, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), NCM Holdings, LLC (the “Buyer”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of National CineMedia, Inc. (the “Company”), completed the previously announced acquisition (the “Acquisition”) of (i) Captivate Holdings, LLC and Captivate Network Holdings, Inc. (collectively, “Captivate”). Concurrently with the closing of the Acquisition, and consistent with the previously disclosed commitment letter, dated August 10, 2026, the…
Why it matters: NCM moved from negative adjusted OIBDA in Q1 to $2.1 million in Q2. Another positive result would show that gain lasted.
Supportive ifA quarter after the deal reports adjusted OIBDA above $0.
Worry ifA quarter after the deal reports adjusted OIBDA below $0.
Why it matters: NCM reported $2.7 million in savings through Q2 and remained on track for about $11 million annualized. More savings may ease its losses.
Supportive ifNCM reports annual savings near or above $11 million, based on its stated 2025 cost base.
Worry ifNCM reports annualized savings below $11 million or says the program is no longer on track.
Why it matters: NCM tied the deal case to annual savings of more than $3.5 million in year one. Results can show if the savings arrive.
Supportive ifNCM reports at least $3.5 million in annual run-rate savings from Captivate within the first year after closing.
Worry ifNCM reports less than $3.5 million in annual run-rate savings by September 18, 2027, or says savings are delayed.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$224 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $522 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,431 loss on $10,000 · 64.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.