National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.48-0.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NCMI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 23.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
NCMI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-11
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability. This can draw in investors.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.03 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend is cut below $0.03 per share.
Why it matters: Closing the Captivate deal will greatly grow NCM's advertising platform. This could boost revenue and market position.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close in H2 2026 if there are no delays or issues.
Worry ifThe deal may be delayed or not happen because of regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Better Adjusted OIBDA means more profit. This can affect future growth and investments.
Supportive ifAdjusted OIBDA for Q3 is reported above $1 million.
Worry ifAdjusted OIBDA for Q3 is reported below $1 million.
Why it matters: These savings show good cost management and efficiency. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifThe changes made save $11 million each year.
Worry ifCost savings reported below $6 million for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$167 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $442 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,340 loss on $10,000 · 53.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cost savings updates will show if NCM is working better. This can affect profits.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save at least $6 million each year by the next report.
Worry ifCost savings reported are below $6 million or progress stalls.
Why it matters: Keeping revenue growth above 6.7% YoY shows NCM can take advantage of box office trends.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 6.7% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 6.7% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Getting $11 million in annual cost savings is important. It helps improve profits and cash flow.
Supportive ifNCM reports achieving at least $6 million in cost savings by the end of 2026.
Worry ifCost savings reported are less than $6 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing financially. A big earnings miss could hurt investor trust.
Watch forEarnings report shows better revenue and profit numbers.
Also watch forEarnings report shows ongoing losses or misses revenue goals.
Why it matters: Guidance on Q3 revenue will indicate if NCM can maintain growth momentum. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Watch forManagement expects Q3 revenue to be more than $57 million.
Also watch forManagement expects Q3 revenue to be less than $57 million.