Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
nCino Inc (NCNO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.21-0.98%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.57 → 1.58 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NCNO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve $135M-$140M Free Cash Flow in FY 2027 | Free cash flow is set to reach $137.5M, showing strong cash generation. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $120M in FY 2027 | Free cash flow: $34.004M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $135M-$140M FCF. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 25, 202634,004,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 2, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented software business with robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance, rather than a turnaround story. Its multi-year view is intact, but the risk label has risen to high and management is rated neutral.
The valuation evidence is mixed: NCNO is tagged as cheap versus peers, yet also carries a 65% premium versus peers, with a negative expectations gap of 0.28. The overall priced-in tag is justified, and no fragility gates fired, but confidence in the valuation model is medium.
Near term, management’s revenue and free cash flow priorities are on track; revenue grew 11.7% from 2026-Q1 to 2026-Q3, and the company reported earnings beats in May and August. The next call remains important: guidance cuts are a meaningful risk, and the risk label recently moved from elevated to high.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on continued progress toward fiscal 2027 revenue of $642 million to $646 million and free cash flow of $135 million to $140 million. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while rate cuts or steadier results from large technology peers could improve the sector backdrop.
For the 1-to-3-year view, NCNO has an intact growth thesis supported by recent execution, but high risk and a mixed, demanding valuation make delivery against guidance central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in nCino Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain revenue growth to at least $159.4M in Q1 2027. |
| Intact |
| Quarterly revenue growth stalls or declines below $150M |
Revenue: $161.001M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Sustain revenue growth to at least $159.4M in Q1 2027. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 25, 2026161,001,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue to $642M-$646M in FY 2027 | A primary condition in nCino Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$644M total revenue. | Intact | Revenue falls below $585M in FY 2026 | Revenue: $161.001M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$644M total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 25, 2026161,001,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.49 → $1.58 · observed estimates
$0.70B → $0.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.49 | $701,639,902 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.49 | $701,639,902 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.49 | $701,760,671 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.49 | $701,760,684 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.56 | $701,043,990 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.56 | $701,043,990 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.56 | $701,043,990 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.57 | $701,179,836 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.57 | $701,179,529 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.57 | $701,323,848 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.57 | $701,323,848 | 8 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.58 | $701,323,848 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.58 | $701,323,848 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.58 | $701,323,848 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.58 | $701,323,848 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.58 | $701,323,848 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.58 | $701,322,841 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.58 | $701,322,841 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.58 | $701,322,841 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.58 | $701,322,841 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.58 | $701,322,841 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.58 | $701,322,841 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.58 | $701,322,841 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.58 | $701,322,841 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.58 | $701,322,841 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.58 | $701,322,841 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.58 | $701,322,841 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.58 | $701,322,841 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.58 | $701,322,841 | 9 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.