nCino Inc (NCNO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.12-2.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
nCino grows revenue steadily, aiming for about $644M in 2027. Free cash flow is set to reach $137.5M, showing strong cash generation. Profit margins and execution remain solid with a PE of 20.2, cheaper than peers. The company benefits from lasting demand for cloud software in finance.
Growth could slow if revenue falls below $585M in 2026 or free cash flow misses $135M in 2027. Competition or execution issues may pressure margins. The stock trades expensive relative to cash flow yield, risking multiple contraction if growth disappoints.
The market prices in about 9% revenue growth and values the stock slightly below our $17 fair value. Our model expects durable growth and cash flow, which supports the current valuation. We see limited upside unless growth accelerates beyond consensus.
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $120M in FY 2027
Breaks if: Quarterly revenue growth stalls or declines below $150M
Management continues to focus on sustaining revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $585M in FY 2026
Management continues to focus on sustaining revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue and cash flow growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and a share buyback announcement.
The market currently prices NCNO at an expensive level compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some positive performance is already anticipated.
Management is on track to meet its revenue and free cash flow targets for fiscal year 2027, showing strong recent financial performance. However, there is an elevated risk of missing estimates, especially given recent industry trends.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance, the potential for favorable macroeconomic conditions like Fed rate cuts, and the performance of sector leaders that could influence market sentiment.
Overall, NCNO's fundamentals appear solid, but the elevated valuation and near-term risks warrant careful observation. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company beat earnings expectations and reported strong subscription growth. However, there are concerns about a disappointing revenue outlook that impacts growth expectations.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.