nCino Inc (NCNO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.12-2.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NCNO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NCNO — President transition
Dated 2025-12-03
Director — Jeff Horing: Jeff Horing resigned from the Board of Directors, and two new directors were appointed.
Why it matters: This range is important for checking profits. Hitting it would show strong operations.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating income reported for Q2 is between $35.5M and $37.5M.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating income for Q2 is less than $35.5M.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals potential market challenges. It may affect investor sentiment and future guidance.
Worry ifTotal revenues growth rate reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifTotal revenues growth rate remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A beat would restore confidence after the recent earnings miss. It signals that management can deliver on their growth plans.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings exceed analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ2 earnings fall short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key updates on revenue and cash flow. It is crucial for assessing growth progress.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue and cash flow growth in line with or above guidance.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue and cash flow growth below guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$217 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $502 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,456 loss on $10,000 · 54.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Securing a new major customer would signal strong market demand and validate nCino's growth strategy. It can boost future revenue forecasts.
Supportive ifA new major customer contract is worth over $5 million each year.
Worry ifNo new major customer wins announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New customers would prove nCino's growth plan and AI skills.
Supportive ifNew customer contracts or renewals will be announced at nSight 2026.
Worry ifNo new customer contracts or renewals announced at nSight 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program can signal management's confidence in the stock. It may also improve shareholder value.
Supportive ifManagement says they will increase the share buyback amount.
Worry ifManagement cancels or cuts the share buyback program.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may impact nCino's growth. This could signal a broader slowdown in the tech sector.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into revenue growth and cash flow progress.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth is higher than what management expected.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth is lower than what management expected.
Why it matters: This metric shows how loyal customers are and future money-making chances. Meeting this target shows a strong market.
Supportive ifACV reported for FY 2027 is between $662.5M and $667.5M.
Worry ifACV reported for FY 2027 is below $662.5M.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows strong demand and growth momentum. It confirms management's growth strategy is on track.
Supportive ifTotal revenues for Q3 reported at or above $161.25 million.
Worry ifTotal revenues for Q3 were below $161.25 million.
Why it matters: This program shows confidence in the company's value. It also shows a commitment to giving money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says they made good progress on the $100 million stock buyback program.
Worry ifNo major stock buybacks happened under the new program.
Why it matters: Gaining new customers in this area shows rising demand for AI solutions. It also boosts market position.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new AI customer wins in the DACH region.
Worry ifNo new customer wins reported in the DACH region.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows strong cash flow. This helps with growth and returning money to investors.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at or above $135 million for FY 2027.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $135 million for FY 2027.