nCino Inc (NCNO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.21-0.98%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NCNO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers
NCNO — President transition
Dated 2025-12-03
Director — Jeff Horing: Jeff Horing resigned from the Board of Directors, and two new directors were appointed.
Why it matters: The latest free cash flow range is $137 million to $142 million. Missing its low end would weaken the cash goal.
Worry ifFY2027 free cash flow is below $137 million, the low end of the latest range.
Less concerning ifFY2027 free cash flow reaches at least $142 million, the top of the latest range.
Why it matters: The board approved another $100 million plan after earlier share repurchases. Actual purchases show if the company keeps returning cash this way.
Supportive ifA filing or results update reports new purchases under the August 2026 plan.
Worry ifThe company reports no purchases under the plan, or says it has paused or ended the plan.
Why it matters: Four large U.S. customers renewed early and expanded AI use. More such deals would show that customers are paying for the AI offer.
Supportive ifA later company update names more multi-year bank renewals that add AI tools or expand AI use.
Worry ifA later update reports a large customer renewal, but no wider use. Or it reports losing a large customer.
Why it matters: The current full-year revenue range is $644 million to $647 million. A result below its midpoint would miss the stated growth path.
Worry ifFY2027 revenue comes in below $644 million, the low end of the latest range.
Less concerning ifFY2027 revenue reaches at least $647 million, the top of the latest range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$187 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $485 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,671 loss on $10,000 · 46.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The tech sector is still growing, but its growth trend is easing. Sector data flags revenue growth below its median as a key change.
Worry ifThe tech sector's reported revenue growth drops below its median.
Less concerning ifThe tech sector's reported revenue growth stays at or above its median.