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NETCAPITAL INC (NCPL)
NASDAQFinancialsCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$0.69-10.21%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, NCPL is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 299% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Market cap
- $5.99M
- Employees
- 20
- IPO date
- 2013-09-16
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$0.24consensus
Range $0.24 – $0.24
vs price: +189% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-year—
—consensus
Range — – —
vs price: —
Method agreement —
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $0.69, NCPL's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 8× p/s (4.0× the 2× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~299% near-term growth vs our ~-12% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $0.17 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
8.2x
peer 2.0x · own history —
Premium
4.0x peer
Growth the price needs
299%
our forecast -12%
Our fair value
$0.17
range $0.17 – $0.17
WhyPeer anchor understates a real premiumOptionality our model can't price
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 299% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -12%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
5th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.30x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile30 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.headwind-4.4%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$406.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,330.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $9,629.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-05-2919d agoSeeking Alpha
Advances: Focus on M&A activity
Strategic shift aligns with M&A growth focus.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting NCPL and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on NCPL and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like MS, GS, and SCHW start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping NCPL and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits NCPL and other Financials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If NCPL misses again next quarter like this past one (a very large miss off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2025-10-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-161d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 10, 2026, Netcapital Inc. (the “Company”) closed the transactions contemplated by a Securities Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”), dated as of June 9, 2026, with FirstFire Global Opportunities Fund, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“FirstFire”). On June 10, 2026, the transaction closed upon the Company’s receipt of the purchase price, and the Company issued and delivered to FirstFire a promissory note dated June 9, 2026…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.