Noble Corporation (NE)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$45.61-2.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Avoid revenue decline worse than -10% next year: FY27 rev est -12.7% vs -10% target.
Noble keeps a strong contract backlog near $7.5 billion. It plans to spend $25 million more to reactivate a key rig. The company pays a steady $0.50 dividend per share. These support revenue and shareholder returns.
Revenue is expected to fall about 10% next year. The company is loss-making and faces sector headwinds. Debt issuance and capital obligations may pressure cash flow.
The market expects about 10% revenue decline next year. Our fair value is near the current price, but growth estimates are weak. We see risk if the sector stays weak.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures increase less than $15 million
Breaks if: Backlog falls below $6.5 billion
Breaks if: Revenue decline worse than -10% YoY
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the energy sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial results have been weak, but the sector backdrop is supportive.
The market has priced in an expensive valuation for NE, reflecting a durable premium compared to peers. There is a notable expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating better performance than what has been delivered recently.
Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, given the company's loss-making status and recent earnings miss. Management's mixed delivery on maintaining backlog and financial guidance adds to the uncertainty.
The long-term thesis hinges on NE's ability to reverse recent trends, particularly by raising guidance in the next quarter. Additionally, favorable sector momentum from peers and potential inflationary pressures could provide support.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss raises concerns about future guidance. This miss was significant, with a surprise of -92%. The company's revenue outlook is now worse than previously expected.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Dividend falls below $0.40 per share quarterly
In the next 1 to 3 years, NE's performance will depend on its operational execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.