Noble Corporation (NE)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.03-6.69%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 35.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-26
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 26, 2026, Noble Corporation plc (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its condensed consolidated financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of such press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 and will be published in the “Investors” section on the Company’s website at www.noblecorp.com. Pursuant to the rules and regulations of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the press release is being furnished…
Why it matters: Noble says new Tier-1 drillship work has reached the mid-$400,000s to $500,000 range. More awards at those rates would support its backlog and pricing claims.
Supportive ifA new Tier-1 drillship contract is reported at $450,000 per day or more, with a 2027 start.
Worry ifA newly reported Tier-1 drillship contract starts below $450,000 per day, or a named 2027 award is canceled.
Why it matters: The sale would bring in $38 million and advance Noble's fleet changes. A missed close would leave the stated sale incomplete.
Watch forNoble reports that the Noble Globetrotter II sale closed in Q4. It received the $38 million purchase price.
Also watch forThe sale has not closed by December 31, 2026, or Noble reports a canceled sale or lower price.
Why it matters: Noble linked new contracts to higher use of its rigs in 2027. Q3 utilization was 70% across marketed rigs.
Supportive ifA quarterly report shows more than 70% of marketed rigs in use. New 2027 contracts start on time.
Worry ifUtilization is 70% or lower, or a named 2027 contract start is late or canceled.
Why it matters: Noble paid a $0.50 dividend while Q3 free cash flow was negative $48 million. Positive free cash flow would show more cash left after spending.
Supportive ifQ4 free cash flow is above zero after capital spending.
Worry ifQ4 free cash flow is zero or lower, while Noble maintains the $0.50 quarterly dividend.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $389 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,180 loss on $10,000 · 31.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.