Noble Corporation (NE)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$45.61-2.10%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas DrillingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 40.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 78.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name its industry peers have been missing lately and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
NE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 27, 2026, Noble Corporation plc (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its condensed consolidated financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of such press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 and will be published in the “Investors” section on the Company’s website at www.noblecorp.com. Pursuant to the rules and regulations of the Securities and Exchange Commission, the press release is being furnished and sha…
Why it matters: Changes in backlog show how much money can come in the future. A drop may mean less demand.
Watch forBacklog increases beyond $7.5 billion after Q2 earnings on July 27, 2026.
Also watch forBacklog falls below $7.5 billion after Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: Any change in how Noble uses capital could show management's confidence in growth. It may also affect stability.
Watch forManagement shares a new capital plan focused on growth or paying down debt.
Also watch forManagement sticks to a cautious capital plan. They focus on paying debt instead of growth.
Why it matters: Better operations in Brazil could raise revenue and profits a lot.
Supportive ifIf operations in Brazil get better, revenue could recover by at least $43 million.
Worry ifOngoing problems in Brazil cause more revenue losses.
Why it matters: Better rig performance can help regain lost income from work stoppages.
Supportive ifOperations are returning to normal. This will help increase revenue.
Worry ifMore work stoppages cause more income losses.
Why it matters: Keeping or growing backlog is important for future revenue and business health.
Supportive ifBacklog increases from $6.8 billion in Q2 2026 to $7 billion or more.
Worry ifBacklog decreases further from $6.8 billion.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this guidance would show revenue recovery after recent drops.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance is confirmed at $2.8 billion or higher.
Worry ifRevenue guidance may drop below $2.8 billion.
Why it matters: Higher rig use shows better performance. It also means more demand for services.
Supportive ifRig use goes above 64% in the next quarter.
Worry ifRig use stays at or below 64%.
Why it matters: Updates on revenue guidance will show how management views the market. It will also show the challenges they face.
Watch forNoble raises Q3 revenue guidance above the current range of $2.8-$2.9 billion.
Also watch forNoble lowers Q3 revenue guidance further from the current range.
Why it matters: Updates on Brazilian rigs will explain how they affect revenue and EBITDA.
Worry ifNoble says both Brazilian rigs are now back in operation.
Less concerning ifFurther delays or suspensions of the Brazilian rigs are announced.
Why it matters: The energy sector is changing. Signs of revenue growth speeding up could affect Noble's outlook.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth shows a re-acceleration back toward its highs, above 6% growth.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 6% or continues to decline.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company wants to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.50 per share is made on September 24, 2026.
Worry ifDividend payment is cut or stopped.
Why it matters: Confirming the $0.50 dividend shows a promise to pay shareholders. This is important even with recent losses.
Supportive ifNoble confirms the payment of the $0.50 dividend on September 24, 2026.
Worry ifNoble cancels or reduces the dividend payment for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New contracts can help reverse the recent decline in backlog and support future revenue.
Supportive ifNoble announces new contracts adding at least $200 million to backlog.
Worry ifNo new contracts are announced, leading to further backlog decline.
Why it matters: More spending shows a commitment to improve the fleet. This can help future earnings.
Supportive ifGuidance for 2026 capital spending goes up from $25 million due to fleet reactivation.
Worry ifIf capital spending guidance stays the same or goes down, it means less investment in the fleet.
Why it matters: New contracts support backlog growth and utilization. This could signal a stronger market position.
Supportive ifNew contract awards exceed $200 million in total value.
Worry ifNew contract awards fall below $200 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $387 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,180 loss on $10,000 · 31.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.