Newmont (NEM)
NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
$128.09-1.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NEM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
NEM — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-20
Director — Peter David Beaven: The filing announces the appointment of a new independent director to the board and audit committee, which is a standard governance action rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: Newmont is showing it cares by paying a dividend to shareholders.
Supportive ifDeclaration of a dividend of $0.26 per share for Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo dividend declared for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on production plans can show how well the company is doing.
Watch forProduction guidance for 2026 is raised above 5.3 million ounces.
Also watch forProduction plans for 2026 are now below 5.3 million ounces.
Why it matters: The new $6 billion share repurchase program could enhance shareholder value.
Supportive ifNewmont announces completion of at least $1 billion in share repurchases by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNewmont fails to execute any share repurchases by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping up with capital investments is key. It helps to maintain production capacity.
Watch forSustaining capital spend in Q2 2026 meets or exceeds $500 million.
Also watch forSustaining capital spend in Q2 2026 falls below $400 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$203 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $564 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,225 loss on $10,000 · 32.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New share repurchase announcements show trust in cash flow and returns for shareholders.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks worth over $1 billion.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: How much is spent on sustaining capital can change production and stability.
Watch forSustaining capital spending is at or below $1.95 billion for 2026.
Also watch forSustaining capital spending will be more than $1.95 billion in 2026.
Why it matters: The new CFO, Brian Tabolt, may improve financial management. He can also help with spending.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 earnings show improved free cash flow above $3.5 billion.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings report free cash flow below $3 billion.
Why it matters: Higher costs can mean problems in operations and lower profits.
Worry ifQ3 AISC exceeds $1,621 per ounce.
Less concerning ifQ3 AISC remains below or equal to $1,621 per ounce.
Why it matters: Production levels are key to meeting full-year guidance. A drop signals operational issues.
Worry ifQ3 gold production was less than 1.3 million ounces.
Less concerning ifQ3 gold production meets or exceeds 1.3 million ounces.
Why it matters: Cash from operations impacts free cash flow and shareholder returns. A decline may indicate issues.
Worry ifCash from operations in Q3 reported below $2.9 billion.
Less concerning ifCash from operations in Q3 meets or exceeds $2.9 billion.
Why it matters: Approvals are crucial for advancing the project. Delays could impact future growth plans.
Supportive ifFinal investment decision announced for the Red Chris Block Cave project.
Worry ifFurther delays in regulatory approvals for the Red Chris Block Cave project.
Why it matters: A bigger program shows confidence in cash flow. It also shows a commitment to investors.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of an increase in the share repurchase program beyond the current $6 billion.
Worry ifNo news about expanding the share buyback program.