Newmont (NEM)
NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-11-04
$118.11+9.90%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsGoldSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NEM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NEM — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-20
Director — Peter David Beaven: The filing announces the appointment of a new independent director to the board and audit committee, which is a standard governance action rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: Newmont is moving the block cave project toward a major funding choice. A timely decision would mark progress on a key growth project.
Supportive ifNewmont finishes and reviews the feasibility study. It then approves full funding for Red Chris in early 2027.
Worry ifThe funding decision is delayed beyond early 2027, or the study leads Newmont not to approve full funding.
Why it matters: Newmont lowered its full-year cost outlook. Staying within those limits would support its cash generation plan.
Supportive ifFull-year gold by-product CAS is no more than $925 per ounce and AISC is no more than $1,520 per ounce.
Worry ifFull-year CAS tops $925 per ounce or AISC tops $1,520 per ounce, or Newmont raises either limit.
Why it matters: Newmont declared a $0.26 per-share dividend, payable December 21. The payment is a clear test of its stated cash return plan.
Supportive ifNewmont pays $0.26 per share on December 21 to holders of record on November 25.
Worry ifNewmont changes, delays, or cancels the declared payment of $0.26 per share.
Why it matters: Newmont plans to pay Barrick $1.95 billion in Q4 for the Nevada Gold Mines agreement. The cash balance after payment will show how much room remains for other uses.
Watch forNewmont pays the planned $1.95 billion in Q4 and reports at least $5 billion in cash afterward.
Also watch forThe payment is delayed or changes a lot, or reported cash after payment is below $5 billion.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $485 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,225 loss on $10,000 · 32.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.