Reading NEOG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NEOG free→Reading NEOG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NEOG free→NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may challenge growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 65% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major Healthcare companies. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.10. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.10 the market pays 32× p/e — above the 20× p/e peer median but in line with its own 38× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $5.53 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 65% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted -9.66x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.04 → $0.05 (+11.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$182.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$482.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,771.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% would signal weakening momentum in a growth phase for the sector.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NEOG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
No material events in the last 90 days.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Health Care Supplies.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NEOG Neogen | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MDLN MEDLINE INC | — | full | moderate |
WST West Pharmaceutical Services | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 93 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COO Cooper Companies (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ALGN Align Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Complete the transition to the new Petrifilm manufacturing line by November FY27.
Complete the divestiture of the Genomics business unit by the end of 2Q27.
Raise fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $857 million to $860 million.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a potential slowdown in the sector.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reports show a drop below the median growth rate.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above the median growth rate.