Neogen (NEOG)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.83+1.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NEOG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 39.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 88 industry peers
NEOG — officer change
Dated 2026-08-07
Director — Mr. Thierry Bernard: Mr. Thierry Bernard resigned from the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Stabilizing revenue growth is key after recent drops. It shows recovery in Animal Safety.
Watch forQ1 FY26 revenue growth stabilizes or goes up compared to last quarter.
Also watch forQ1 FY26 revenue keeps dropping year over year, raising investor worries.
Why it matters: Recovery in this segment is crucial after recent declines. It impacts overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifAnimal Safety revenue is growing compared to Q4 FY26. This follows fixing supply problems.
Worry ifAnimal Safety revenue keeps falling or stays the same compared to Q4 FY26.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% would signal weakening momentum in a growth phase for the sector.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating revenue goals shows Neogen can grow after recent issues.
Supportive ifQ1 FY27 revenue meets or exceeds the guidance of $207-$209 million.
Worry ifQ1 FY27 revenue falls below the guidance range.
Why it matters: The sale will provide funds for debt reduction and improve financial health.
Supportive ifThe divestiture closes by the end of 2Q27 with expected proceeds of $140 million.
Worry ifRegulatory checks push the sale beyond the expected date.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below its median, it signals a potential slowdown in the sector.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reports show a drop below the median growth rate.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above the median growth rate.
Why it matters: The sale may bring in $140 million. This will help reduce debt and support future investments.
Supportive ifRegulatory reviews are done on time. This allows the sale to close as planned.
Worry ifRegulatory reviews are delayed. This pushes the sale past 2Q27.
Why it matters: Completing this transition is key for Neogen's growth in food safety products. It signals readiness to meet demand.
Supportive ifManagement says the first full Petrifilm SKU will be done by August 2026.
Worry ifThe transition faces delays or the first validated SKU is not completed by the end of August 2026.
Why it matters: This sale is crucial for reducing debt and improving financial health. Approval will confirm strategic focus.
Supportive ifRegulatory bodies complete their review and approve the sale to Zoetis Inc. by the end of 2Q27.
Worry ifThe review by regulators is taking longer than expected. Approval may not be granted.
Why it matters: This guidance shows Neogen can stabilize revenue after recent drops. It shows better operations.
Supportive ifManagement says FY26 revenue guidance is still $857-$860 million in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers FY26 revenue guidance from the current range.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is important for Neogen's overall success and recovery from past drops.
Supportive ifFood Safety segment revenue growth exceeds 3% in the next quarter.
Worry ifFood Safety segment revenue growth falls below 2% in the next quarter.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$162 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $428 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,771 loss on $10,000 · 27.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.