Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Nephros Inc (NEPH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.09-4.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.26 → 0.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NEPH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain stable profit margins near current levels | A supporting condition in Nephros Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain profit margins near current levels. | Improving | profit margins decline significantly below recent levels | Net margin: 19.89% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near current levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Aug 10, 202619.893635 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NEPH is a high-risk growth business, not yet a durable compounder, because it remains loss-making despite strong recent financial performance. The long-term thesis is intact, with management’s core revenue priorities showing progress.
NEPH trades at a 36% premium to peers, while the valuation evidence describes expectations as broadly justified and the expectations gap as small. That leaves limited room for a major change in expectations to explain the valuation; the model confidence is medium.
Near term, revenue growth and recent earnings performance support the business, including 27% year-over-year growth in core programmatic revenue in Q2. Service revenue and newer product activity also show progress, though their execution status is mixed. Losses, a history of recent misses, and the possibility of a guidance cut remain risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued growth in core programmatic revenue and successful expansion of service and newer product offerings. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs data could pressure the business backdrop, while continued strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, NEPH has a growing business and an intact thesis, but its premium valuation, losses, and high risk make execution the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Quarterly revenue stays at or above $5 million |
| A primary condition in Nephros Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=5 million USD per quarter. |
| Intact |
| quarterly revenue falls below $5 million in any quarter |
Revenue: $6.017M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5 million USD per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 20266,017,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue growth of at least 7% | A primary condition in Nephros Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | annual revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.14 → $0.26 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.14 | $23,803,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.26 | $25,655,500 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.