Nephros Inc (NEPH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.09-4.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NEPH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
NEPH — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-07
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Why it matters: Service revenue nearly tripled in Q2. Continued growth would show that new support work is gaining traction.
Supportive ifQ3 service, royalty, and other revenue is at least $300,000, close to Q2's $316,000.
Worry ifThat revenue falls below $200,000 in Q3.
Why it matters: Programmatic sales drive repeat orders. Growth above the first-half pace would support the recurring sales story.
Supportive ifIn the November 5 results, core programmatic revenue grows more than 20% year over year.
Worry ifCore programmatic revenue growth falls below 20% year over year, or turns negative.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.3 million, but net income included a one-time tariff refund. EBITDA can show if earnings stay strong without the refund.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is above $1 million. The tariff refund is shown apart from earnings.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $500,000.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$311 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $775 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,194 loss on $10,000 · 51.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.