Nephros Inc (NEPH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.06-2.87%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NEPH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 38.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NEPH — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-07
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Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may mean weaker demand or market problems.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 7% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue milestone consistently shows growth momentum. It reflects success in their strategy.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue is over $5 million for the second straight quarter.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue drops below $5 million after reaching it once.
Why it matters: Revenue from new products shows market acceptance and growth potential.
Supportive ifNew product revenue contributes at least 10% of total revenue in Q3.
Worry ifNew product revenue contributes less than 10% of total revenue in Q3.
Why it matters: The outcome of the tariff refund will impact gross margins and overall financial health.
Watch forNephros announces receipt of the $0.6 million tariff refund.
Also watch forNephros confirms the tariff refund claim is denied or delayed.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$298 on $10,000 · ±3.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $776 loss on $10,000 · 7.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,194 loss on $10,000 · 51.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New products are crucial for growth. Strong sales can validate Nephros's market strategy.
Supportive ifNew products generate at least $1 million in revenue in Q3.
Worry ifNew products fail to generate significant revenue in Q3.
Why it matters: Getting the tariff refund would help gross margins. It would also improve financial stability.
Supportive ifThe $0.6 million tariff refund was confirmed in Q3.
Worry ifNo confirmation of the tariff refund by Q3.
Why it matters: If the health care sector grows faster, Nephros may benefit from improved demand.
Supportive ifHealth care sector revenue growth speeds up above 9% over three years.
Worry ifHealth care sector revenue growth keeps slowing down below 9%.
Why it matters: Better gross margins show improved cost control and stronger pricing. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin exceeds 65% in Q3.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 57% in Q3.
Why it matters: Ongoing growth in trailing revenue shows Nephros's ability to expand its revenue base.
Supportive ifTrailing 12-month revenue grows beyond $16.7 million.
Worry ifRevenue has dropped or stayed the same over the last 12 months.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show revenue trends and what management thinks about the future.
Watch forThe earnings report shows strong revenue growth and positive guidance from the company.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows falling revenue and careful guidance from the company.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows Nephros is on track with its growth goals. It confirms management's focus on expanding revenue.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at $5 million or more.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $5 million.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to Nephros's long-term stability and market position. A drop would raise concerns about demand and execution.
Worry ifCore programmatic revenue growth of less than 25% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifCore programmatic revenue growth of 25% or more year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin could signal worsening cost pressures from tariffs and currency issues. This would impact profitability.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 57% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGross margin stays at or above 57% in Q3.
Why it matters: Service revenue growth is important for Nephros. Slower growth may mean less demand for services.
Worry ifService revenue growth of less than 100% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifService revenue growth of 100% or more year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A refund could improve margins and cash flow, supporting future growth. It would validate management's efforts to mitigate tariff impacts.
Supportive ifA tariff refund of more than $200,000 was announced.
Worry ifNo big tariff refund announcement.