Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
National Fuel Gas (NFG)
NYSEUtilitiesOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$73.97-3.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.51 → 7.63 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NFG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete CenterPoint Ohio acquisition by Q4 2026 | The recent acquisition of CenterPoint Ohio supports future growth. | Intact | Acquisition not completed by Q4 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regulated utility and energy business with a growth component, rather than a turnaround thesis. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and recent financial performance is neutral.
The evidence describes NFG as cheap versus peers, while the priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations; valuation-model confidence is medium.
For the multi-year view, management targets 7% to 10% average annual adjusted EPS growth through 2029, and the CenterPoint Ohio acquisition completed on October 1 as planned. Financing is a mixed area: the company issued notes for the acquisition and debt refinancing, while reported free cash flow supported debt reduction and investment. Near term, miss risk is rated quiet, but a guidance reversal after the recent raise would damage credibility.
The thesis depends on NFG delivering its growth plan while integrating the completed acquisition and managing financing. Fed rate cuts and stronger results or guidance from utility peers could support the sector backdrop, while a guidance cut would be a key adverse signal.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the setup rests on execution of the growth plan and maintaining guidance credibility; the evidence keeps the long-term thesis intact but confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company raised EPS guidance to $7.6 per share for Q3 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS guidance falls below $7.45 per share for Q3 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $1.45 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$7.6 per share. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Jul 30, 20261.45 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase operating income to at least $347 million | Operating income improved from $276 million to $347 million in Q2. | Intact | Operating income falls below $347 million in Q2 2026 | Operating income: $208.94M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$347 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Jul 30, 2026208,940,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 12% YoY | A primary condition in National Fuel Gas's published investment case. The stated target is >=12% YoY. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 12% next year | Revenue growth: 1.07% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Jul 30, 20261.065566 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.51 → $7.63 · observed estimates
$2.95B → $2.96B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.51 | $2,951,879,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.63 | $2,961,684,500 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.