National Fuel Gas (NFG)
NYSEUtilitiesOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$83.32-0.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesOil & Gas IntegratedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NFG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NFG — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-29
Regulation FD Disclosure. On July 29, 2026, National Fuel Gas Company (the “Company”) updated its Investor Presentation. A copy of the presentation is furnished as part of this Current Report as Exhibit 99. Neither the furnishing of the presentation as an exhibit to this Current Report nor the inclusion in such presentation of any reference to the Company’s internet address shall, under any circumstances, be deemed to incorporate the information available at such internet address into this Cu…
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend show how much management trusts cash flow and earnings.
Supportive ifManagement raises the dividend per share to more than $0.535.
Worry ifManagement keeps the dividend per share at $0.535 or cuts it.
Why it matters: Management expects adjusted EPS growth of 7% to 10% through 2029. Confirmation supports long-term growth outlook.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance remains within the range of $7.40 to $7.60.
Worry ifGuidance is lowered below $7.40. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition would help National Fuel grow and reach more customers.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will confirm the acquisition is complete. It will also show that approvals are in place.
Worry ifA delay or cancellation may occur. This could be due to regulatory problems or other issues.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps with capital use and paying off debt. This boosts stability.
Supportive ifFree cash flow generation is projected to be between $1.0 and $1.5 billion over the next three years.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls significantly below the projected range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$65 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $182 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,093 loss on $10,000 · 20.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.