Netflix (NFLX)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$78.25-5.35%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NFLX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
NFLX — officer change
Dated 2026-07-30
Director — Anne Sweeney: Anne Sweeney resigned from the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Delays or problems could hurt Netflix's growth plans and what content it offers.
Watch forConfirmation of the acquisition closing by the end of 2026.
Also watch forThere are delays or problems in the process of buying.
Why it matters: A strong buyback program shows that Netflix is financially strong.
Supportive ifNetflix announces it has completed at least $5 billion in share buybacks.
Worry ifNo major share buybacks reported in the next six months.
Why it matters: A drop in engagement would indicate a loss of viewer interest and could hurt growth.
Worry ifEngagement metrics show a decline in view hours year over year.
Less concerning ifEngagement metrics show growth in view hours year over year.
Why it matters: Good results from this partnership could improve Netflix's local content. It may attract more subscribers.
Supportive ifView hours of TF1 content grow each week after the partnership launch.
Worry ifView hours of TF1 content do not increase or decline post-launch.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $356 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,649 loss on $10,000 · 46.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This vote is key for completing the acquisition. It affects Netflix's growth and market position.
Supportive ifWBD stockholders vote to approve the all-cash transaction with Netflix.
Worry ifWBD stockholders reject the transaction or delay the vote beyond April 2026.
Why it matters: The deal could change Netflix's content and its place in the market. Delays may show problems.
Watch forThe deal's closing date is now expected to be early 2027.
Also watch forNews of delays or issues in the deal process.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show confidence in financial health and stock value.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $5 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $3 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in operating margin may show higher costs or problems. This can hurt profits and how investors feel.
Worry ifOperating margin is below 31.5% for 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating margin is at or above 31.5% for 2026.
Why it matters: Reaching $12.5 billion in free cash flow would show strong capital management and growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow is about $12.5 billion for 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $11 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: A lower margin may mean higher costs or inefficiencies. This can hurt profit outlook.
Worry ifOperating margin was below 33.2% in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating margin reported at or above 33.2% in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program could signal confidence in financial health and support stock price.
Supportive ifThe company announced share buybacks under the new $25 billion program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in executing the share buyback program.
Why it matters: The stockholder vote will confirm if the acquisition proceeds. This impacts Netflix's growth strategy.
Supportive ifWBD stockholders vote in favor of the acquisition by April 2026.
Worry ifWBD stockholders vote against the acquisition or delay the vote beyond April 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal potential issues in member growth or pricing power.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth prints below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Falling free cash flow may show problems with costs or how well money is used.
Worry ifFree cash flow in Q3 is reported below $1.5 billion.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow in Q3 is reported at or above $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: A drop in view hours may mean content is less appealing or competition is rising.
Worry ifView hours decline year over year in Q3 or Q4.
Less concerning ifView hours grow year over year in Q3 or Q4.