Netflix (NFLX)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$65.56-1.25%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NFLX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NFLX — officer change
Dated 2026-07-30
Director — Anne Sweeney: Anne Sweeney resigned from the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Netflix cut its ad revenue view after some ad tools rolled out more slowly. Results near $3B would show that the rollout caught up.
Watch forNetflix reports 2026 ad revenue near or above $3B.
Also watch forNetflix reports 2026 ad revenue near $2.7B or below.
Why it matters: Netflix tied Q4 growth to memberships, prices, and ads. Revenue below its forecast would weaken the growth story.
Worry ifQ4 2026 revenue is below $13.442B, or year-over-year growth is below 11.5%.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 revenue meets or exceeds $13.442B and year-over-year growth reaches 11.5%.
Why it matters: Netflix named the first group of new ad markets for March. On-time launches would show the ad rollout is moving ahead.
Supportive ifNetflix launches ads in the nine named EMEA countries, Colombia, Peru, and New Zealand in March 2027.
Worry ifThe March launch slips, or Netflix launches in fewer than those 12 named markets.
Why it matters: Netflix plans live events during Q4. Strong viewing would support its push to add more event programming.
Supportive ifNetflix reports strong viewing for its three Thanksgiving Eve and Christmas Day NFL games, or the Fury–Joshua fight.
Worry ifNetflix reports weak viewing for these events or delays one of the named events.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $358 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,644 loss on $10,000 · 46.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The Q4 forecast includes costs from headcount cuts. A margin below forecast would add pressure to the full-year goal.
Worry ifQ4 2026 operating margin is below 26.0%.
Less concerning ifQ4 2026 operating margin hits or tops 26.0%.