Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.95-8.47%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.54 → 2.54 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NGS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 Adjusted EBITDA at least $92.5 million | A primary condition in Natural Gas Services Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=92.5 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $92.5 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NGS is a growth-oriented energy-services business with a cyclical sector backdrop. Its long-term thesis is intact: recent results and fleet growth support the business case, though elevated risk and management volatility make execution less certain.
The valuation evidence is mixed: NGS is described as cheap versus peers, while its peer premium measure is positive, and the model has medium confidence. The overall priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility; the evidence points to a turbulent sector regime but not a broader combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.
Near-term, recent results were neutral overall, despite August earnings-beat events. In 2026-Q2, rented horsepower and adjusted EBITDA grew year over year, and management remains on track with fleet growth and the higher quarterly dividend; capital allocation is mixed. The next guidance update and sector conditions are near-term risks, while the reported miss probability is 31% and the watch tier is quiet.
The multi-year view hinges on continued fleet optimization, organic growth, and disciplined spending, including whether the capital-allocation record improves. Near-term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from SLB, BKR, and HAL would support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NGS has a supported growth thesis, but its progress depends on execution and a sector tailwind that could fade. The current evidence says the thesis is intact, with medium confidence and elevated risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Natural Gas Services Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 15-18 USD_MILLIONS. |
| Broken |
| Capital expenditures exceed $18 million or drop below $15 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $18.786M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 15-18 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202618,786,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income grows to at least $6.8 million in 2026-Q1 | Net income rose from $4.1M to $6.8M in recent quarters. | Intact | Net income falls below $6.8 million in 2026-Q1 | Net income: $3.83M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.8 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 20263,830,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.61 → $2.54 · observed estimates
$0.25B → $0.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.48 | $250,666,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.48 | $250,666,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.48 | $250,666,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.48 | $250,666,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.48 | $250,666,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.48 | $250,666,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.48 | $250,666,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.48 | $250,666,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.48 | $250,666,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.48 | $250,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.48 | $250,600,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.61 | $253,499,800 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.54 | $254,655,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.54 | $254,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.