Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.95-8.47%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 29.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers
NGS — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-10
Other Events On August 10, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $0.15 per share of common stock. This cash dividend will be paid on September 2, 2026, to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 19, 2026.
Why it matters: NGS plans to spend $60 million to $80 million on growth equipment. Spending above plan could strain cash and debt.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 growth capex tops $80 million, or maintenance capex tops $18 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 growth capex stays between $60 million and $80 million. Maintenance capex stays between $15 million and $18 million.
Why it matters: Flatrock added scale, but wage and supply costs may rise. The next results can show whether the larger business keeps its margin.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA grows year over year. Rental adjusted gross margin stays at or above 63%.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA falls from a year ago, or rental adjusted gross margin falls below 60%.
Why it matters: High use of the fleet helps NGS earn more from equipment it already owns. A drop could point to weaker demand or service issues.
Watch forQ3 horsepower use stays at or above 88%, near the Q2 record of 88.3%.
Also watch forQ3 horsepower use falls below 85%, down from 88.3% in Q2.
Why it matters: Flatrock cut the share of revenue from Occidental and Devon from about 64% to 54%. A further drop would show the customer base is broadening.
Supportive ifOn November 9, NGS reports that Occidental and Devon together make up less than 54% of revenue.
Worry ifOn November 9, NGS reports that Occidental and Devon together make up 54% or more of revenue.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $435 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,440 loss on $10,000 · 34.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.