Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC)
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-05
$29.26-1.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.13 → 2.13 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NGVC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CAPEX between $45M and $50M | A supporting condition in Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is CAPEX $45M-$50M. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $55M or falls below $40M | Capital expenditures: $9.554M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX $45M-$50M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20269,554,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 19, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NGVC is a smaller-cap grocery growth business, with its multi-year view tied to opening stores and increasing sales at existing locations. The thesis is intact, though recent financial performance is neutral and risk is elevated.
The evidence describes NGVC as cheap versus peers, with a small negative expectations gap, meaning expectations are slightly below the model’s estimate. Valuation rose recently, while priced-in fragility remains low; the evidence does not establish what specific operating assumptions the market already expects.
Near term, store expansion is on track: NGVC opened six stores year-to-date, while its fiscal 2026 outlook is now 6 to 7 stores. Comparable-store sales growth improved to 1.2% in Q3 from 0.5% in Q2, but guidance was lowered, capital spending plans were reduced, and the latest reported earnings event was a miss. Guidance was reaffirmed as of August 6, 2026, but the evidence flags weakening jobs growth and a run of recent earnings misses as risks.
The multi-year view hinges on NGVC continuing to expand stores while improving sales at existing locations. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs growth would pressure the near-term case; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from grocery peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NGVC’s intact thesis rests on steady store growth and stronger comparable-store sales, with execution and economic sensitivity as key risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit per share should reach about $2.12 next year. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $2.00 in FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.12 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.48 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
annual revenue growth >=7.5% | A primary condition in Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7.5% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 1.84% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7.5% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20261.835689 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
PE ratio near or below 17.5x | It has a cheap valuation with a price-to-earnings ratio below peers. | Intact | PE rises above 20x without earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 14.20x As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 202614.2039 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.13 → $2.13 · observed estimates
$1.39B → $1.39B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.13 | $1,388,800,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.