Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC)
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$27.93+2.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NGVC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NGVC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange…
Why it matters: Opening new stores is key for growth. It shows demand for Natural Grocers' products.
Supportive ifNatural Grocers opens at least 6 new stores by the end of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 6 new stores opened by the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide updates on sales, profits, and growth strategies. This is key for investors.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income growth higher than 2.5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income growth lower than 2.5% year over year.
Why it matters: CAPEX guidance impacts store growth and plans. Changes can show new management priorities.
Watch forManagement maintains CAPEX guidance of $45M to $50M for 2026.
Also watch forManagement cuts CAPEX guidance to less than $45M for 2026.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to assessing customer demand and overall sales health. A drop below this level could signal weakening consumer interest.
Worry ifDaily average store sales growth is 1.5% or more.
Less concerning ifDaily average store sales growth is under 1.5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $439 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,180 loss on $10,000 · 41.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in store sales growth may show weaker consumer demand. This is key for understanding the company's growth.
Worry ifQ3 comparable store sales growth prints below 1.2%.
Less concerning ifComparable store sales growth exceeds 1.2%.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows careful spending. This helps long-term growth and stability.
Supportive ifManagement says they plan to spend $45M to $50M on capital projects.
Worry ifManagement cuts their spending plans to less than $45M.
Why it matters: Gross margin affects how much money a company makes. A decline shows cost issues.
Worry ifGross margin for Q3 2026 below 29.3%.
Less concerning ifGross margin for Q3 2026 at or above 29.3%.
Why it matters: More capital spending may show plans for growth but could hurt finances.
Watch forCapital spending for fiscal 2026 is over $50 million.
Also watch forCapital spending for fiscal 2026 is at or below $50 million.
Why it matters: Comparable store sales growth is key to showing customer demand. A drop signals weakness.
Worry ifDaily average store sales growth is below 1.2% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifDaily average store sales growth is above 1.2% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New store openings are crucial for growth. Fewer openings could hurt future sales.
Worry ifTotal new store openings for fiscal 2026 below 6.
Less concerning ifTotal new store openings for fiscal 2026 at 6 or more.