Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC)
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-05
$29.26-1.15%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesGrocery StoresSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NGVC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 2 industry peers
NGVC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange…
Why it matters: The next earnings report is scheduled for November 19. It can show whether sales, profit, and store growth met the revised fiscal-year ranges.
Watch forThe report shows fiscal 2026 sales growth of 1.5%–2.0%, diluted EPS of $2.07–$2.11, and 6–7 new stores.
Also watch forThe report puts any of those measures below its updated range.
Why it matters: The company opened six stores by the end of Q3, with two more opened after quarter-end. Fewer than six for the year would miss its updated range.
Worry ifThe company reports fewer than 6 new store openings for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifThe company reports 6 or 7 new store openings for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Sales growth rose from 0.5% in Q2 to 1.2% in Q3, but the full-year range was lowered. Another rise would show the recent gain continued.
Supportive ifQ4 average daily same-store sales growth is above 1.2%.
Worry ifQ4 average daily same-store sales growth is 1.2% or less.
Why it matters: Management kept its EPS range at $2.07–$2.11. Results below $2.07 would miss the low end.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 diluted EPS is below $2.07.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2026 diluted EPS reaches $2.07 or more.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $362 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,703 loss on $10,000 · 27.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Gross margin fell to 29.3% in Q3, as product mix, inventory loss, and freight costs weighed on results. A lower Q4 margin would extend that pressure.
Worry ifQ4 fiscal 2026 gross margin is below 29.3%.
Less concerning ifQ4 fiscal 2026 gross margin is 29.3% or higher.