Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ingevity, Corp. (NGVT)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$63.71-13.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.04 → 6.04 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NGVT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EPS between $4.70 and $5.20 in 2026 | The company improves earnings per share to about $4.7-$5.2. | Intact | Adjusted EPS falls below $4.70 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an earnings-improvement story with a supportive Materials sector backdrop, rather than a proven steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, though recent momentum has eased and the evidence snapshot rates confidence as medium.
The valuation evidence points to NGVT being cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap that suggests the market is not fully reflecting the stronger operating outlook. The priced-in assessment is tagged unjustified, with low fragility; the evidence does not give a precise account of the market’s assumptions.
Near term, management is on track for its 2026 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS goals, after raising both ranges, while revenue is progressing with the effect of a divestiture noted. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 14% and adjusted EPS increased year over year, although revenue fell 5% as reported and rose 5% excluding the divested business. The near-term risk is rated quiet, but recent earnings surprises have been erratic and company momentum has weakened.
The multi-year view depends on management sustaining delivery against its 2026 goals and maintaining credibility after raising guidance. Continued earnings strength from Materials peers could support the sector backdrop, while peer misses or lower guidance could weaken that tailwind. A reversal and guidance cut would be a key negative because it could damage confidence in management’s outlook.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued execution and a supportive sector backdrop, with valuation evidence suggesting expectations remain restrained. The setup is constructive but hinges on guidance credibility and sustained operating progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Ingevity, Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is <= 2.5x net leverage. |
| Intact |
| Net leverage remains above 2.5x at end of FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The company intends to utilize the strong free cash flow to reduce leverage to within our long-term target range of 2.0 to 2.5 times and return cash to shareholders.” “The company intends to use its strong free c ash flow to maintain leverage within its long-term target range of 2.0 to 2.5 times and return capital to shareholders.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Complete divestitures of non-core businesses | A supporting condition in Ingevity, Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Divestiture proceeds of ~$158 million completed by mid-2026. | Intact | Divestitures not completed or reversed by mid-2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The completion of the Road Markings divestiture in April further demonstrates our commitment to portfolio transformation.” “We also continue to advance the sale of Advanced Polymer Technologies, however, the timing of an announced agreement may extend into early 2027.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Adjusted EBITDA between $370M and $395M in 2026 | Profit stays strong with adjusted EBITDA around $370 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $370 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full year 2026 revenue near $1.05B to $1.15B | A primary condition in Ingevity, Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.05 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.05 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $305.1M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.05 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 2026305,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “It now expects full year 2026 net sales between $1.05 billion and $1.15 billion, adjusted EBITDA between $380 million and $400 million, and diluted adjusted EPS of $5.00 to $5.45.” “We are taking action to improve performance while remaining confident in the long-term value of the business.” Revenue was $305.100 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.94 → $6.04 · observed estimates
$1.13B → $1.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.94 | $1,130,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.94 | $1,130,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.94 | $1,130,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.94 | $1,130,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.94 | $1,130,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.94 | $1,130,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.85 | $1,127,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.96 | $1,127,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.01 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.05 | $1,129,666,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.05 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $6.04 | $1,128,320,667 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.