Ingevity, Corp. (NGVT)
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$70.54+1.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsChemicals - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NGVT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NGVT — credit agreement
Dated 2026-03-30
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT On March 26, 2026 (the “ Closing Date ”), Ingevity Corporation (the “ Company ”), Ingevity Holdings SRL (“ Holdings ”), Ingevity UK Ltd (the “ UK Borrower ”), the other loan parties party thereto, the lenders party thereto, the issuing banks party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent (the “ Administrative Agent ”), collateral agent and swingline lender, entered into that certain Second Amendment and Restatement Agreement (th…
Why it matters: A big drop would show ongoing market issues and hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net sales decline greater than 3% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net sales increase or stay flat year over year.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth would show a positive change in the materials sector. This might mean more demand for Ingevity's products.
Supportive ifQ1 revenue growth reported above 1% year over year.
Worry ifQ1 revenue growth remains at or below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth without divested segments shows the core business is strong after changes.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth without divested segments is over 5% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth without divested segments is below 0% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Performance Materials shows good pricing and market demand.
Supportive ifPerformance Materials sales grew more than 6% in Q2.
Worry ifPerformance Materials sales grew less than 6% in Q2.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$129 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $332 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,394 loss on $10,000 · 23.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This shows sales are recovering after selling the Road Markings unit. It helps meet the full-year revenue goal.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales reach or exceed $300 million.
Worry ifQ3 net sales fall below $290 million.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how Ingevity is doing financially. It will help us understand future results.
Watch forThe earnings report shows revenue growth and better profit numbers.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows falling revenue or bigger losses.
Why it matters: More share buybacks could mean management trusts the company's future.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 share repurchases exceed $52 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 share repurchases fall below $30 million.
Why it matters: New contracts would prove Ingevity's technology works. This would also show growth in nearby markets.
Supportive ifThere is a new municipal contract for PFAS filtration.
Worry ifNo new contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Meeting this revenue target would indicate progress toward the full-year goal of $1.05B to $1.15B.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $270 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $250 million.
Why it matters: This shows problems with making money and may hurt investor trust. It shows how well management can deliver earnings.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS was below $4.70.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS was above $5.20.
Why it matters: Reaching this target would show good money management and financial health.
Supportive ifNet leverage improves to 2.0-2.5 times by year-end.
Worry ifNet leverage remains above 2.5 times by year-end.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may show problems in making money after selling.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 is above 36%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 falls below 36%.
Why it matters: This shows challenges in reaching the full-year EBITDA target. It shows how well management controls costs and revenue.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA was less than $370 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA was more than $395 million.
Why it matters: This shows possible trouble in meeting the full-year revenue target. It shows how the company is adjusting after selling parts of the business.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $1.05 billion.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue reported above $1.15 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows faith in growth, even after recent sales.
Supportive ifManagement says full-year revenue will be between $1.05 billion and $1.15 billion.
Worry ifGuidance is cut below $1.05 billion. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Hitting this EPS shows good cost control and revenue growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 reaches or exceeds $1.74.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q3 is below $1.60. This shows possible profit issues.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good operations and ability to pay off debt.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow in Q3 exceeds $89 million.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is below $80 million. This raises worries about cash.