Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$71.58+0.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.10 → 3.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NHI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations near $53 million | Revenue is expected near $241 million in 2026. | Intact | cash from operations falls below $53 million | Cash from operations: $65.438M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $53 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 202665,438,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NHI is a real estate company with a growth thesis tied to senior housing acquisitions and operations. The thesis is intact, and its signal has recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, though earnings quality remains fragile.
Valuation is close to peers, and the evidence says expectations are broadly aligned with the business setup. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility concentration rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.
Near term, recent financial performance is strong, while senior housing investment and operating income have expanded and the dividend per share has increased. However, consecutive earnings misses and a 47% estimated miss probability make the next report a meaningful execution risk; management’s acquisition record is mixed.
Over the next few quarters, continued senior housing growth and disciplined acquisitions would support the multi-year thesis, while a guidance cut could weaken it. Fed rate cuts may help the sector, but cracks in large real estate peers could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, NHI’s long-term thesis rests on growth in senior housing and continued execution, balanced against fragile earnings quality and the risk of weaker guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| NHI keeps paying a stable dividend of $0.92 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.92 |
Dividend per share: $0.92 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.92 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 10, 20260.92 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Dividend On August 7, 2026, the Board of Directors declared an increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.94 per share from $0.92 per share.” “NHI Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results Page 2 • Normalized Funds Available for Distribution (“FAD”) for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 increased $5.7 million to $61.6 million compared to $56.0 million for the same period in the prior year.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Engage in strategic M&A to grow | A supporting condition in National Health Investors, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is active M&A engagement. | Intact | no meaningful M&A activity for 2 quarters | Qualitative: Active M&A engagement confirmed News from 2026-08-11 confirms strategic pivot to expand senior housing portfolio through acquisitions. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $241 million in 2026 | Revenue is expected near $241 million in 2026. | Broken | revenue falls below $240 million | Revenue: $121.319M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$241 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026121,319,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.37 → $3.22 · observed estimates
$0.28B → $0.28B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.37 | $281,317,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.37 | $281,317,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.31 | $460,784,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.31 | $460,784,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.31 | $460,784,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.31 | $460,784,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.31 | $460,784,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.31 | $460,784,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.31 | $460,784,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.31 | $460,784,640 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.29 | $282,254,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.21 | $280,384,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.21 | $280,384,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.21 | $280,384,600 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.21 | $280,384,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.21 | $280,384,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.21 | $280,384,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.21 | $280,384,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.21 | $280,384,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.21 | $280,384,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.21 | $280,384,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.21 | $280,384,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.21 | $280,384,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.21 | $280,024,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.21 | $280,024,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.18 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.18 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.18 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.18 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.18 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.18 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.18 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.13 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.13 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.13 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.13 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.13 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.13 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.13 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.13 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.13 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.13 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.13 | $279,110,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.13 | $278,970,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.13 | $278,970,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.13 | $278,970,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.13 | $278,970,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.13 | $278,970,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.13 | $283,283,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.13 | $283,283,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.13 | $283,283,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.13 | $283,283,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.13 | $283,283,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.13 | $283,283,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.13 | $283,283,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.10 | $283,283,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.10 | $283,283,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.10 | $283,283,400 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.10 | $278,970,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.10 | $278,970,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.10 | $278,970,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.10 | $278,970,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.10 | $278,970,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.23 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.23 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.23 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.23 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.23 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.23 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.23 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.23 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.23 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.23 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.22 | $310,501,224 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.22 | $310,501,224 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.22 | $279,042,600 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.