National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$70.88-1.43%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NHI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -28.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NHI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 10, 2026 , National Health Investors, Inc. issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the real estate sector.
Supportive ifReal estate sector revenue growth is speeding up. It is getting close to over 7%.
Worry ifRevenue growth is under 5%. This shows the sector is still maturing.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can maintain its dividend and cash flow. Investors will react to any signs of financial stress.
Worry ifEarnings per share meets or beats analyst expectations. This shows stability.
Less concerning ifEarnings per share is below analyst expectations. This shows financial weakness.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends would show financial strength and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of an increase in dividend per share from $0.94.
Worry ifAnnouncement of no change in dividend per share.
Why it matters: Falling cash from operations shows there may be problems that need fixing.
Supportive ifCash from operations increases from $53.44 million in Q1 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations continues to decline or stays below $53 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$106 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $214 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,409 loss on $10,000 · 24.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A change in guidance may show shifts in operations or market conditions.
Worry ifNAREIT FFO guidance for 2026 revised down to a range of $4.74 - $4.79.
Less concerning ifGuidance remains unchanged or is raised above $4.79.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows loyalty to shareholders. A cut might mean financial problems.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $0.92 for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifDividend per share is reduced below $0.92.
Why it matters: Strong growth in SHOP NOI would show that recent acquisitions and management strategies are working.
Supportive ifQ3 SHOP NOI growth exceeds 150% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 SHOP NOI growth is below 100% year-over-year.
Why it matters: M&A activity can drive growth and improve market position. Successful deals can enhance investor confidence.
Supportive ifThere is news of a successful acquisition or partnership that boosts revenue.
Worry ifThere are no big updates on M&A activity or failed talks.
Why it matters: New M&A announcements could show ongoing growth and market strategy.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new acquisitions or sales in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: His experience may improve operations and help growth in senior housing.
Supportive ifThere are good operational metrics. New plans were announced under Chris Maingot's leadership.
Worry ifThere are no clear improvements in operations. The strategic direction is also unclear.
Why it matters: New investments can boost growth and profits. They help NHI expand.
Supportive ifNHI announces new investments from the $20.3 million pipeline with a yield above 7.5%.
Worry ifNo new investments come from the pipeline. This shows growth plans are slowing.
Why it matters: Staying above this level would show better performance and financial health.
Supportive ifNormalized FFO per diluted share remains above $1.19 for Q3.
Worry ifNormalized FFO per diluted share drops below $1.15 for Q3.
Why it matters: This sale is a big deal. It could change NHI's money options and debt level.
Supportive ifThe sale is done. It brings in $560 million in cash and lowers debt.
Worry ifThe sale does not close on time or is delayed due to regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how NHI is doing. They will also hint at what’s next.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Falling occupancy may show problems in operations. This can hurt revenue.
Worry ifSame-store occupancy rates in the SHOP segment fall more than the current 2.4%.
Less concerning ifOccupancy rates stay the same or improve. This shows better operations.
Why it matters: Finishing these investments would help NHI grow in senior housing.
Supportive ifThey announced that they finished investments worth $127.3 million.
Worry ifThere will be no announcements of finished investments in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More M&A activity could show NHI's plan to grow and take market chances.
Supportive ifThey announced new acquisitions or partnerships. This happened within three months of the NHC sale.
Worry ifNo new M&A announcements following the NHC portfolio sale.
Why it matters: A decline shows problems in the senior housing market. This could hurt growth.
Worry ifSame-store SHOP results decline year-over-year by more than 2%.
Less concerning ifSame-store SHOP results stay the same or grow from last year.
Why it matters: An increase shows good cash flow management. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases to above $0.94 in the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $0.94 or decreases.
Why it matters: A decline suggests lower profits. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifNet income for common stockholders drops more than 10% from last year.
Less concerning ifNet income for common stockholders goes up or stays the same from last year.