NATURAL HEALTH TRENDS CORP (NHTC)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.59-1.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NHTC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -53.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -14.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 39.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 45 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NHTC — officer change
Dated 2026-05-07
Director: Annual board election at the company's annual meeting.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks may help the stock price and show management's confidence.
Supportive ifStock prices rise by 10% or more after share buyback announcements.
Worry ifStock price decreases by 5% or more despite ongoing share repurchases.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows they want to give value to shareholders, even after cuts.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.10 per share or higher for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend again or suspends it.
Why it matters: Starting share buybacks shows management's trust in the company's value. It can help stock prices.
Supportive ifThe company says it completed share buybacks worth at least $5 million.
Worry ifNo share repurchases are announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the company is making more money. This is key for its finances.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income is positive or much better than -$474,000 in Q1.
Worry ifOperating income stays negative or gets worse than -$474,000 in Q1.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$221 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $694 loss on $10,000 · 6.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,284 loss on $10,000 · 62.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A steady or rising number of Active Members means better member retention. This could lead to more revenue.
Supportive ifActive Members count increases to 27,000 or more by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifActive Members count falls below 26,000 by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This growth would indicate a recovery from the 23% revenue decline seen in Q2.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was $8 million or more. This shows signs of recovery.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $7 million. This shows ongoing struggles in the business.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends can show how well the company is doing. It also shows its commitment to giving back money.
Watch forDividends are maintained or increased from the recent $0.1 per share.
Also watch forDividends are cut further from the recent $0.1 per share.
Why it matters: Updates may show management's confidence in the company. This can affect the stock price.
Supportive ifThere was an announcement about more stock buybacks. This includes finishing the $16 million program.
Worry ifNo updates or a pause in the stock repurchase program.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth at this event may show better member engagement and spending.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is less than 0% compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A larger revenue drop would signal ongoing challenges in the business. It could show that the restructuring and support efforts are not enough.
Worry ifQ3 revenue declines worse than -23% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue either stabilizes or gets better compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: More savings would show that the restructuring is effective. This could help improve financial results and investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement says they saved over $600,000 from the restructuring in Q3.
Worry ifCost savings from the restructuring program do not meet expectations or are not shared.
Why it matters: High attendance can help members engage more. It can also increase sales through promotions.
Supportive ifMore than 1,000 people join the 25th anniversary event in Hong Kong.
Worry ifFewer than 1,000 people join the 25th anniversary event.