Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$172.80-1.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.54 → 13.71 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NIC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend payout at $0.32 per share quarterly | The company maintains a dividend payout of $0.32 per share, supporting shareholder returns. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.30 per quarter | Dividend per share: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.32 USD per share per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NIC is a financial-sector business with a recent record of strong performance, rather than a turnaround case. Its long-term thesis is intact and recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but execution evidence remains mixed and confidence is medium.
NIC is tagged as stretched and valued at a 1.37 premium versus peers, with a durable premium identified as the main reason. The expectations gap is 0.23, while the evidence describes only low fragility, so the premium does not appear to reflect a full stack of execution, market-regime, and turbulence risks.
Near term, recent results are strong: NIC reported earnings beats in July and October, and its signal improved. Integration and systems conversion are complete, while expense fell between the second and third quarters; the planned savings are not quantified. Deposit growth and a higher net interest margin support execution, but nonperforming assets edged higher and recent industry misses remain a watch point.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on NIC avoiding a guidance cut and showing that integration savings are realized while deposit growth and credit discipline continue. A start to rate cuts could weigh on the sector, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support its momentum.
For the 1-to-3-year view, NIC’s strong recent performance keeps the long-term thesis intact, but its stretched valuation makes execution and the rate backdrop important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share are expected near $9.78 in 2026, showing solid profitability. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $9.0 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $2.96 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9.78 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20262.96 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete and integrate MidWest One merger | Nicolet Bankshares completed the MidWest One merger, expanding its footprint. | Intact | Merger integration delayed beyond FY26 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “As we complete our conversion later this summer and begin fully realizing our planned cost savings, we’ll be in a stronger position to restore the high level of profitability and returns that have historically defined Nicolet.”” “Our core conversion is currently scheduled for late summer, after which all anticipated cost savings should be realized and we look to return to our regular position of producing top decile core profitability.”” Revenue was $200.353 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Increase stock repurchase authorization by $60 million | Stock repurchase authorization increased by $60 million, enhancing capital allocation. | Intact | No increase or reduction in buyback authorization | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.26 → $13.71 · observed estimates
$0.58B → $0.72B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.26 | $578,562,830 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.44 | $584,144,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.44 | $584,144,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.42 | $581,644,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.42 | $581,644,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.42 | $581,644,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.42 | $581,644,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.42 | $581,644,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.42 | $581,644,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.42 | $581,644,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.42 | $581,644,670 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $13.52 | $711,995,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.54 | $713,075,600 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.54 | $713,987,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.54 | $713,987,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.54 | $713,987,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.54 | $713,987,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.54 | $713,987,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.54 | $713,987,800 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.54 | $713,987,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.54 | $713,987,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.54 | $713,987,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.54 | $713,987,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.54 | $713,987,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.54 | $713,987,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $13.57 | $715,027,800 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $13.61 | $715,888,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $13.71 | $718,308,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $13.71 | $718,308,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $13.71 | $718,308,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $13.71 | $718,308,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $13.71 | $718,308,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $13.71 | $718,308,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.71 | $718,308,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.71 | $718,308,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.71 | $718,308,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.71 | $718,308,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.71 | $718,308,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.71 | $718,308,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.71 | $718,308,000 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.