Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$175.24+1.61%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NIC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The two one-year growth estimates are about the same.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NIC — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-20
Regulation FD Disclosure. In the Press Release, Nicolet also announced that it had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share on its common stock. The dividend is payable December 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of December 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Management says Q4 will give a clearer view of earnings after the conversion. Lower merger costs would help show the bank's earnings power.
Supportive ifThe January 19, 2027 release reports core diluted EPS above $3.15, with merger costs below Q3's $0.19 per share.
Worry ifThe release reports core diluted EPS at or below $3.15, or merger costs at or above Q3's $0.19 per share.
Why it matters: The board declared a $0.36 quarterly dividend. Payment on schedule would confirm that this capital return remains in place.
Supportive ifNicolet pays $0.36 per share on December 15, 2026, to holders of record on December 1.
Worry ifNicolet delays, cuts, or cancels the $0.36 per-share payment due December 15, 2026.
Why it matters: Nonperforming assets rose from $75 million to $78 million in Q3. A further rise would weaken the recent picture of solid credit quality.
Worry ifThe Q4 report shows nonperforming assets above $80 million or 0.52% of total assets.
Less concerning ifThe Q4 release reports nonperforming assets at or below $78 million and 0.52% of total assets or less.
Why it matters: The margin reached 4.19% in Q3, up from 4.14% in Q2. A rise without added help from acquired-loan gains would show strength in the bank's core spread.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin is above 4.19%, while loan purchase accounting gains add no more than Q3's 23 basis points.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin is at or below 4.19%, or loan purchase accounting gains rise above 23 basis points.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$75 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $253 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,790 loss on $10,000 · 17.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.