Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NIC)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$172.12+0.73%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NIC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
NIC — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-21
Regulation FD Disclosure. In the Press Release, Nicolet also announced that it had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.36 per share on its common stock. The dividend is payable September 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of September 1, 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings growth shows strong results. This follows the acquisition and good integration.
Supportive ifQ3 net income reported above $60 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $50 million.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This could hurt investor confidence in Nicolet Bankshares.
Worry ifThree-year revenue growth falls below the median growth rate for the sector.
Less concerning ifThree-year revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the sector.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payout helps investors feel confident and shows financial strength.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report confirms a dividend payout of at least $0.32 per share.
Worry ifDividend payout is cut or not maintained at $0.32 per share.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show strong financial health. It shows a commitment to giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says they will raise the dividend above $0.36 per share.
Worry ifManagement keeps the dividend at $0.36 per share with no increases.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $279 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,790 loss on $10,000 · 17.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing this merger is key for growth and expanding Nicolet's market reach.
Supportive ifThe company announced that the merger is complete.
Worry ifFurther delays or complications in the merger process.
Why it matters: Closing this sale will affect asset quality and cash flow. It shows management's focus on selling parts of the business.
Watch forThe sale of the Denver branches closes as expected in Q3 2026.
Also watch forThe sale faces regulatory delays or fails to close.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifNicolet's revenue growth is below its usual level of 15%.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is still above the usual level.
Why it matters: Watching nonperforming assets and charge-offs helps check credit risk after the merger. This can affect future earnings.
Worry ifNonperforming assets stay stable or drop below $75 million.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets rise above $80 million. This may show credit problems.
Why it matters: Finishing the integration can save costs and make more money. Investors want to see if management meets this timeline.
Supportive ifManagement says the core conversion is done on time in late summer 2026.
Worry ifManagement pushes back the core conversion. It is now later than expected.
Why it matters: A higher repurchase limit shows trust in the company's value and future.
Supportive ifThe company announced a new stock buyback plan that is larger than the current one.
Worry ifThere is no increase in the stock buyback limit or a cut in the current plan.
Why it matters: Steady margin growth is key for making money, especially after the MidWest One deal.
Supportive ifNet interest margin increases further beyond 4.14% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin declines below 4.00% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows good financial health. It also supports shareholders.
Supportive ifNicolet declares a dividend of $0.36 or higher for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNicolet cuts the dividend payout below $0.36 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This earnings report will show if the company keeps making profits after the MidWest One deal.
Watch forEarnings per share for Q3 exceeds $2.99, indicating strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings per share for Q3 falls below $2.75, suggesting weaker performance.