New Jersey Resources (NJR)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$53.40-0.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
New Jersey Resources raised its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance to $3.48-$3.63. Cash from operations improved sharply to $562.6 million in Q2 2026. The company steadily grows its dividend, recently increasing it from $0.45 to $0.48 per share.
The sector faces headwinds that could pressure margins and growth. Free cash flow remains negative on a trailing twelve-month basis. Any sustained drop below EPS guidance would challenge the thesis.
The stock trades about 12% above our $51 fair value. Analysts expect 38% revenue growth, which we view as justified but optimistic compared to our 3-7% EPS growth forecast.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $562.6 million in next quarters
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.48 in next quarters
Breaks if: EPS falls below $3.48 in fiscal 2026
Raise fiscal 2026 net financial earnings per share (NFEPS) guidance multiple times due to strong performance, especially from Energy Services.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance from $3.03-$3.18 at 2025-Q4 to $3.52-$3.62 at 2026-Q3, reflecting growth in net income from $320.6M to $351.1M year-to-date. The trajectory matches management's repeated guidance increases and strong Energy Services performance, indicating delivery on this priority.
“NJR is tightening its fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance to a range of $3.52 to $3.62 from $3.48 to $3.63”
“Increases fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance to a range of $3.48 to $3.63 from $3.28 to $3.43”
“Raising fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance range by $0.25 to $3.28 to $3.43”
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable utility with a focus on growth and dividend consistency. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and management execution.
The market seems to have priced in a level of fragility due to weak execution quality and a turbulent sector environment. However, the valuation appears cheap compared to peers, indicating that expectations may be modest.
Management has shown a strong commitment to increasing earnings per share (EPS) guidance and maintaining dividend growth. Recent cash flow improvements suggest that fundamentals are likely to remain stable, despite moderate near-term risks.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet or exceed EPS guidance and maintain dividend growth. Additionally, external factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and performance of sector peers will be crucial.
Overall, NJR's fundamentals are strong, but the company must navigate sector challenges and maintain credibility. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. The company raised its EPS guidance for fiscal 2026, reinforcing growth expectations. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.