Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
New Jersey Resources (NJR)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
$54.69-0.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.70 → 3.68 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NJR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations at or above $562.6 million | Cash from operations improved sharply to $562.6 million in Q2 2026. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $562.6 million in next quarters | Cash from operations: $577.78M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=562.6 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 2026577,780,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NJR is a utility-focused business with some growth from its Energy Services operations, making this a steadier but not risk-free multi-year thesis. The thesis is currently intact, though earnings quality is marked fragile and management execution is neutral.
The evidence describes NJR as cheap versus peers, with valuation broadly aligned with expectations and a modest negative expectations gap. The market does not appear to price in a high level of fragility, but the available evidence gives only medium confidence in that assessment.
Near term, recent performance is mixed but supported by higher fiscal 2026 guidance, stronger year-to-date net income, and higher operating cash flow. Dividend growth and cash-flow priorities are on track, while the guidance priority is mixed; a recent history of a deep miss and peer misses remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends in part on NJR sustaining its raised guidance, since a reversal and cut would damage credibility. Near-term support could come from Federal Reserve rate cuts or continued earnings strength among utility peers, though neither is assured.
For the next 1 to 3 years, NJR’s thesis has support from recent financial progress and a valuation described as cheap versus peers, but fragile earnings quality and medium confidence call for caution in interpreting that progress. The key test is whether execution continues without a guidance reversal. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company steadily grows its dividend, recently increasing it from $0.45 to $0.48 per share. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $0.48 in next quarters |
Dividend per share: $0.48 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.48 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 20260.48 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Fiscal 2026 EPS at or above $3.48 | New Jersey Resources raised its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance to $3.48-$3.63. | Intact | EPS falls below $3.48 in fiscal 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.10 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.48 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-09-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Aug 4, 20260.1 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For more information on utility gross margin, please see "Non-GAAP Financial Information" below.” “Energy-Efficiency Programs: • SAVEGREEN ® invested $46.5 million in the first six months of fiscal 2026 in energy-efficiency upgrades for customers' homes and businesses.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.70 → $3.68 · observed estimates
$2.26B → $2.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.70 | $2,260,137,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.68 | $2,261,797,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.68 | $2,261,797,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.68 | $2,261,797,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.68 | $2,261,797,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.68 | $2,261,832,060 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.68 | $2,261,797,159 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.68 | $2,249,494,198 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.