New Jersey Resources (NJR)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$53.40-0.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NJR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 37.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NJR — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-20
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On August 20, 2026, New Jersey Natural Gas Company (“NJNG”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of New Jersey Resources Corporation (“NJR”), and certain institutional investors in the private placement market (the “Purchasers”) entered into a Note Purchase Agreement (the “Note Purchase Agreement”) to sell to the Purchasers $150,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its senior notes consis…
Why it matters: Higher EPS guidance would show stronger earnings growth and boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement says EPS will be higher for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifEPS guidance remains unchanged or is lowered for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth in the utility sector could help New Jersey Resources.
Watch forUtility sector revenue growth speeds up again, above 5%.
Also watch forUtility sector revenue growth slows down below 5%.
Why it matters: More customers mean more money. Steady growth shows strong demand for services.
Supportive ifCustomer count increases by more than 6,000 from the previous quarter.
Worry ifCustomer count decreases or grows by less than 6,000 from the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Capital spending affects future growth and improvements. It shows what management plans to do.
Supportive ifNJR reports capital spending between $4.8 billion and $5.2 billion for growth projects.
Worry ifNJR cuts capital spending guidance below $4.8 billion. This shows smaller growth plans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $191 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,117 loss on $10,000 · 11.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Approval would show NJNG can recover $950 million in system investments. This affects cash flows and customer rates.
Supportive ifNJBPU approves NJNG's request for rate recovery as filed.
Worry ifNJBPU denies or changes NJNG's rate recovery request a lot.
Why it matters: A strong earnings report would support the positive sentiment from the recent earnings beat.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings results show a year-over-year increase in earnings per share greater than 10%.
Worry ifQ2 earnings results show a decline in earnings per share year over year.
Why it matters: Management has updated its fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance. This may show the company's financial health.
Supportive ifAn increase in fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance above the current range of $3.52 to $3.62.
Worry ifA decrease in fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance below the current range.
Why it matters: NJNG's filings will impact customer bills and future earnings. Good results could keep rates steady and make customers happier.
Watch forApproval of NJNG's filings leading to an 8.9% reduction in customer bills.
Also watch forFilings may get rejected or face long delays in the review process.
Why it matters: The new NFEPS guidance shows strong performance. This helps build investor confidence.
Supportive ifNJR confirms fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance in the range of $3.48 to $3.63.
Worry ifNJR revises fiscal 2026 NFEPS guidance downward from the current range.
Why it matters: Cash flow from operations has grown a lot. This shows strong financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations remains above $577.8 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $500 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Changes in cash flow can show how well the company operates and its finances.
Watch forCash flows from operations exceed $600 million.
Also watch forCash flows from operations fall below $577.8 million.
Why it matters: Growing dividends show the company is doing well and cares for shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says the dividend payout will increase.
Worry ifManagement announces a freeze or cut in the dividend payout.
Why it matters: The outcome will impact customer bills and NJNG's revenue stability. A favorable decision can support earnings growth.
Supportive ifApproval of NJNG's $157.6 million base rate increase by the NJBPU.
Worry ifThe NJBPU may reject or cut the proposed rate increase.
Why it matters: Energy Services affects overall earnings. Good results can raise NFEPS guidance.
Supportive ifEnergy Services shows NFE growth over 20% each year.
Worry ifEnergy Services shows a decline or no change in NFE year over year.