Nike, Inc. (NKE)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryFootwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$43.20-0.33%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $43.20. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $43 NKE trades at 28× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median, and our $43 fair value agrees. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $40–$75. Not investment advice.
$40.00 – $75.00 (median $50.00) · 24 analysts · as of 2026-07-03
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.21/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $50.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $29.20 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $18.33 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $19.92 | 23.2 | 0.86 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $42.59 | 13.9 | 2.81 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $36.37 | 23.2 | 1.57 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $65.48 | 2.1 | 31.40 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $99.97 | 63.7 | 1.57 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $12.62 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $46.72 | 29.8 | 1.57 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $39.55 | 23.2 | 1.71 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $36.42 | 23.2 | 1.57 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $78.00 | 23.2 | 3.37 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $68.51 | 2.1 | 32.86 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $214.38 | 63.7 | 3.37 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $100.18 | 29.8 | 3.37 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $54.45 | 23.2 | 2.35 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $80.34 | 23.2 | 3.47 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $70.57 | 2.1 | 33.84 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $220.82 | 63.7 | 3.47 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $103.19 | 29.8 | 3.47 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.