Nike, Inc. (NKE)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.40-0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NKE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 29.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
NKE — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-10
Chief Accounting Officer — Johanna Nielsen: The Chief Accounting Officer resigned to pursue another opportunity with no disagreement cited, and an interim successor is already in place.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show ongoing problems in sales. This is true in key markets.
Worry ifQ4 revenue down year over year worse than -4%.
Less concerning ifQ4 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin means costs are rising or prices are pressuring profits.
Worry ifQ4 gross margin falls below 49.2%.
Less concerning ifQ4 gross margin stays at or above 49.2%.
Why it matters: Earnings results that align with or exceed guidance can boost investor confidence. Missed guidance may raise concerns.
Watch forQ2 earnings results are better than expected.
Also watch forQ2 earnings results fall short of previously provided guidance.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would signal a turnaround in sales after recent declines. It could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 revenue increases year over year, exceeding $11.0 billion.
Worry ifIn Q4 2026, revenue falls compared to last year. It stays below $11.0 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$148 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $318 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,821 loss on $10,000 · 48.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management's focus on 'Win Now' is key to improving performance and growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they made clear progress in 'Win Now' actions during Q2.
Worry ifManagement says there was no clear progress on 'Win Now' actions in Q2.
Why it matters: Stable or growing revenue shows that management is doing well.
Supportive ifFourth quarter revenue growth stays the same or goes up from last quarter.
Worry ifFourth quarter revenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: Getting costs in line is key for making more money and growing long-term.
Supportive ifManagement says operating income fell to $650 million or less in Q4.
Worry ifOperating income is over $999 million. This means cost changes are not effective.
Why it matters: David Denton's leadership could change how NIKE manages costs and investments for growth.
Watch forDenton's first quarterly results show better cost control and smart investments.
Also watch forDenton's first quarterly results show higher costs but no extra revenue.
Why it matters: A big drop in inventory may mean better demand. It could also show better inventory management.
Supportive ifNIKE reports inventory levels down more than 3% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifInventory levels remain flat or increase year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Stable or lower inventory levels show better management. This can help improve profit margins.
Supportive ifInventories remain flat or decrease from $7.5 billion in the next quarter.
Worry ifInventories rise above $7.5 billion. This may mean there are overstock problems.
Why it matters: A bigger improvement shows better cost control and pricing power. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin improvement exceeds 890 basis points in Q2.
Worry ifGross margin improvement is less than 890 basis points.
Why it matters: Cost realignment is key to improving growth. Progress signals better financial health.
Supportive ifManagement says the progress score is over 60% for cost realignment efforts.
Worry ifProgress score remains below 40% or worsens.
Why it matters: This deal could help Nike's finances and support its growth plans.
Supportive ifNike plans to use $1 billion from the credit deal for growth projects.
Worry ifNike does not disclose any plans to utilize the credit from the agreement.
Why it matters: Tariff refunds help gross margin a lot. This affects profits and how investors see the company.
Supportive ifGross margin increases due to tariff refunds exceeding 900 basis points.
Worry ifGross margin does not benefit from tariff refunds as expected.
Why it matters: The new CFO's approach could influence Nike's financial discipline and growth strategies.
Watch forDavid Denton has a clear financial plan that matches Nike's growth goals.
Also watch forThe change causes confusion or unclear financial plans.
Why it matters: Insights from this call will clarify financial health and future strategies.
Watch forThe earnings call shows better results than expected. It also gives positive guidance.
Also watch forThe earnings call shows disappointing results. It also gives negative guidance.
Why it matters: Increased spending could indicate a stronger push for growth, while cuts might signal caution.
Watch forDemand creation costs rose sharply above $4.8 billion. This shows strong marketing efforts.
Also watch forDemand creation costs fell below $4.7 billion. This suggests less money for marketing.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in NIKE Direct revenue shows problems with the direct-to-consumer plan.
Worry ifNIKE Direct revenue declines more than 9% year over year in Q2.
Less concerning ifNIKE Direct revenue decline is less than or stabilizes around -9% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in North America is important. It helps balance losses in other areas.
Supportive ifNorth America revenue growth is still positive compared to last year in the next report.
Worry ifNorth America revenue growth turns negative year over year.