Nike, Inc. (NKE)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.49+5.22%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NKE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 66.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
NKE — strategy / product update
Dated 2026-10-02
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities On October 1, 2026, the Company announced a multi-year enterprise program, which includes and builds upon the previous cost realignment plan announced in March 2026, collectively known as Pace (the "program"). The program is intended to enhance productivity, improve organizational effectiveness, and decrease the Company’s cost structure. The program includes initiatives to further optimize the Company’s global supply chain, better align the Co…
Why it matters: The prior quarter's 49.2% margin included a large tariff refund. The latest 42.8% result gives a clearer test of margins.
Watch forGross margin stays at or above 42.8% in a later quarter, without a similar refund from tariffs.
Also watch forGross margin falls below 42.8% in a later quarter, without a similar refund from tariffs.
Why it matters: Nike expects sales to fall sharply this year. A smaller drop would show that sales are holding up better.
Watch forA quarterly report or updated outlook shows fiscal 2027 revenue falling less than 7% year over year.
Also watch forA quarterly report or updated outlook shows fiscal 2027 revenue falling 9% or more year over year.
Why it matters: In the latest quarter, Direct sales fell 8%, while wholesale sales fell 1%. A smaller gap would show Direct is stabilizing.
Watch forNike Direct revenue falls less than 8% year over year, with digital sales falling less than 13%.
Also watch forNike Direct revenue falls 8% or more year over year, or digital sales fall 13% or more.
Why it matters: Pace aims to cut costs while scaling Sport Offense. Results can show whether the plan saves money without hurting sales.
Watch forNike reports Pace savings on track toward $2.5 billion by fiscal 2031, with costs near its stated estimates.
Also watch forNike reports Pace delays, savings below plan, or charges above its estimates.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$138 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $307 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,969 loss on $10,000 · 49.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The next report can show whether sales and profit trends match Nike's outlook. It can also show whether Pace charges stay near plan.
Watch forThe December 17 report keeps revenue decline below 9% and Pace charges near the stated $0.3 billion for fiscal 2027.
Also watch forThe report puts revenue decline at 9% or more, or raises fiscal 2027 Pace charges above $0.3 billion.
Why it matters: Greater China was Nike's weakest large region in the quarter. A smaller drop would show the business is improving.
Watch forGreater China revenue falls less than 22% year over year, or returns to growth.
Also watch forGreater China revenue falls 22% or more year over year again.