Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Newsmax, Inc. (NMAX)
NYSECommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.42-8.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.21 → 0.16 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NMAX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain or improve gross profit levels | A supporting condition in Newsmax, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Gross profit stays near or above $19.9M quarterly. | Improving | Gross profit falls below $19.9M quarterly next year | Gross profit: $23.334M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Gross profit stays near or above $19.9M quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 202623,333,704 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NMAX is a high-risk growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making overall despite recent quarterly profit. The multi-year thesis is watchful: management has kept revenue growth on track, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
NMAX is expensive versus peers, with a sizable expectations gap and low confidence in the valuation model. Valuation has risen recently, while the evidence says the premium is driven by optionality, or the possibility of future growth, rather than a strong record of profitability.
Near term, revenue growth and gross profit have improved, and management reaffirmed its 2026 revenue guidance after three recent earnings beats. Operating income and net income also improved in the latest reported quarter, but overall earnings quality remains loss-making and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
The multi-year thesis depends on NMAX delivering its revenue plan and turning improved operating results into more consistent profitability. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the case; lower rates or continued earnings strength among sector peers could provide support, but neither outcome is established.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NMAX has evidence of growth and recent operating improvement, but high risk, uneven profitability, and an expensive valuation keep the thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Reduce operating loss towards break-even | A primary condition in Newsmax, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating income improves from -$4.5M in Q1 2026 towards 0. | Improving | Operating loss worsens or stays below -$4.5M next year | Operating income: $1.305M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves from -$4.5M in Q1 2026 towards 0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 20261,304,944 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Newsmax reported a quarterly net income of $2.9 million, or $0.02 per share, the Company's first quarterly net income since becoming a public company, as compared to a net loss of $(75.2) million reported in same quarter in the prior year.” ““Our second quarter results demonstrate the operating leverage we are building across the business, with net income of $2.9 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $5.7 million ,” commented Darryle Burnham, Chief Financial Officer of Newsmax.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve 2026 revenue of $212M to $216M | A primary condition in Newsmax, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $212M and <= $216M. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $212M in 2026 | Revenue: $54.115M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $212M and <= $216M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202654,115,485 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company is reiterating its previously issued full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $212 million to $216 million, representing 13% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the range.” “• Total broadcasting revenues grew 20.5% year-over year to $45.8 million for the second quarter of 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.18 → $0.16 · observed estimates
$0.24B → $0.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.18 | $236,910,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.18 | $236,910,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.18 | $236,910,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.18 | $236,910,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.18 | $236,891,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.21 | $237,241,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.16 | $239,494,333 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.