NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$44.83-1.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
NMI Holdings grows revenue about 6% yearly, showing steady demand. Profit margins remain stable with an EPS around $1.28 per share. The stock trades cheap with a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.4, below peers. Free cash flow yield is strong at 13%, supporting financial health.
Operating income has declined slightly, showing pressure on profits. EPS growth is soft with guidance at $1.28 for 2026, below prior targets. Revenue growth is moderate and may not accelerate meaningfully. The insurance specialty sector could face regulatory or market headwinds.
The market prices the stock about 36% below our fair value near $64, reflecting moderate 6% revenue growth expectations. Our view aligns with consensus on growth but sees upside from valuation and margin improvement.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $1.28 for 2026-Q4
Continue delivering consistent growth in adjusted diluted EPS and net income each quarter.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on maintaining strong earnings per share (EPS) performance and revenue growth. The current thesis state is stable, with management successfully executing its priorities.
The market currently prices NMIH as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a low expectations gap. There is a sense of fragility due to weak execution quality, but this is not fully priced in.
Management is on track to deliver consistent EPS and revenue growth, as evidenced by recent financial performance. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations, given the recent history of industry peers.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like FNF, FAF, and ACT. If these companies continue to beat earnings and guide higher, it could provide a favorable environment for NMIH.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The latest earnings beat supports the thesis. However, the CEO's stock sale raises concerns about leadership stability.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS increased from $1.28 in 2026-Q1 to $1.38 in 2026-Q2, up 14% year-over-year from $1.22 in 2025-Q2. Net income also rose from $99.3M to $105.8M quarter-over-quarter. The trajectory is delivering consistent EPS growth as management emphasized.
“Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.38, compared to $1.28 in the first quarter and $1.22 in the second quarter of 2025.”
“Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.28, compared to $1.20 in the fourth quarter and $1.28 in the first quarter of 2025.”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $125 million next year
Improve operating income through expense management and underwriting performance.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income increased from $124.9M in 2026-Q1 to $136.9M in 2026-Q2, up from $123.6M in 2025-Q2. This reflects improved underwriting and expense management. The trajectory is delivering enhanced operating income consistent with management's focus.
“Operating income was $136.9 million, compared to $124.9 million in the first quarter and $123.6 million in the second quarter of 2025.”
“Operating income was $124.9 million, compared to $131.4 million in the fourth quarter and $123.6 million in the first quarter of 2025.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 5.9% next year
Grow total revenue and net premiums earned steadily each quarter to support business expansion.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Total revenue increased from $183.5M in 2026-Q1 to $187.9M in 2026-Q2, a 6% increase year-over-year from $173.8M in 2025-Q2. Net premiums earned also rose steadily. The trajectory shows consistent revenue growth aligned with management's stated goal.
“Total revenue was $187.9 million, compared to $183.5 million in the first quarter and $173.8 million in the second quarter of 2025.”
“Total revenue was $183.5 million, compared to $180.7 million in the fourth quarter and $173.2 million in the first quarter of 2025.”
Breaks if: PE rises above 13 without earnings growth
Overall, NMIH shows promise with stable management and solid execution, but it faces risks from sector performance. Not investment advice.