NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$44.27+0.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NMIH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -36.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NMIH — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 5, 2026, NMI Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information included in, or furnished with, this report has been "furnished" and shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), nor shall it be deemed inco…
Why it matters: Q2 claims fell to $13.1 million and the loss ratio was 8.3%. A sharp rise could weaken earnings gains.
Worry ifQ3 claims exceed $20.7 million, or the loss ratio rises above 13.3%, the Q1 2026 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 claims stay at or below $13.1 million and the loss ratio stays at or below 8.3%.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted EPS was $1.38, up from $1.22 a year ago. Another year-over-year gain would extend recent earnings growth.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 5, 2026 results show adjusted diluted EPS above $1.38.
Worry ifThe Nov. 5, 2026 results show adjusted diluted EPS below $1.22.
Why it matters: New insurance written rose to $16.1 billion in Q2 from $12.5 billion a year ago. A further rise would show continued new business growth.
Supportive ifQ3 new insurance written is above $16.1 billion.
Worry ifQ3 new insurance written falls below $12.3 billion, the Q1 2026 level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $209 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,835 loss on $10,000 · 18.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.