NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$44.83-1.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NMIH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NMIH — director transition
Dated 2026-02-12
Director — Renu Agrawal: Appointment of Renu Agrawal as an independent director and her inclusion in various committees.
Why it matters: Growth in insurance-in-force shows strong demand. It means the company can grow its portfolio.
Supportive ifPrimary insurance is over $234.5 billion. This is a growth of more than 3% from Q2.
Worry ifPrimary insurance-in-force grows less than 3% or falls in Q3.
Why it matters: Higher net premiums mean strong revenue and demand for mortgage insurance.
Supportive ifNet premiums earned exceed $160 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet premiums earned fall below $157 million.
Why it matters: Strong EPS performance is a management priority. Staying above $0.50 signals good health.
Supportive ifEPS reported above $0.50 for Q2.
Worry ifEPS reported below $0.50 for Q2.
Why it matters: The loss ratio shows how well the company manages risk. A rising loss ratio may mean trouble.
Worry ifLoss ratio stays below 13.3%. This shows good risk management.
Less concerning ifLoss ratio goes above 14%. This suggests more claims and possible issues.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $211 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,528 loss on $10,000 · 15.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If growth exceeds 6%, it confirms management's goal to increase revenue. It also shows strong market demand.
Supportive ifTotal revenue growth reported above 6% YoY in Q3.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth reported below 4% YoY in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in net income could signal challenges in maintaining strong earnings performance.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net income reported below $99 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 net income reported above $99 million.
Why it matters: Low expenses and growing revenue help make more money.
Supportive ifExpenses stay below $31 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifExpenses go over $31 million.
Why it matters: More claims could mean higher risk in the mortgage insurance market. This could hurt profitability.
Worry ifInsurance claims and claim expenses reported above $15 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifInsurance claims and claim expenses reported below $12 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A decline in book value per share could indicate weakening financial health.
Worry ifBook value per share reported below $34.57.
Less concerning ifBook value per share reported above $34.57.
Why it matters: Sustained revenue growth is crucial for the company's financial health. It reflects demand and pricing power.
Supportive ifTotal revenue exceeds $183.5 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifTotal revenue drops below $180.7 million. This shows no growth.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This affects NMI Holdings' outlook.
Worry ifNMI Holdings reports revenue growth below its median of 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifNMI Holdings maintains revenue growth above its median of 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher EPS growth shows good cost management and strong revenue. It shows the company's financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS is over $1.48, showing growth of more than 7% from Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS is below $1.38, showing no growth or a decline.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows the company can make money. This helps management reach their EPS goals.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $109.2 million, which is a 10% increase from Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 net income grows less than 10% YoY, indicating potential profit pressure.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to showing the company's overall health. This aligns with management's goal to increase revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue exceeds $183.5 million, reflecting more than 5% growth from Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue grows less than 5% year over year. This suggests the business is slowing down.
Why it matters: A low loss ratio shows good risk management. This helps the company stay profitable and strong.
Supportive ifQ3 loss ratio stays below 10%. This shows strong performance in underwriting.
Worry ifQ3 loss ratio goes over 10%. This points to possible problems in risk management.
Why it matters: Strong NIW growth shows demand for mortgage insurance. This helps revenue growth and supports management's goals.
Supportive ifQ3 NIW exceeds $16.1 million, reflecting over 25% growth from Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 NIW grows less than 25% YoY, indicating weakening demand.