Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NN Inc (NNBR)
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.67-17.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.20 → 0.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NNBR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow reaches $50-$60 million in 2026 | Free cash flow is expected near $55 million. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $50 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $-3.427M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $50-$60 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026-3,427,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk industrial recovery story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: company momentum improved and the signal turned mildly favorable, while earnings quality remains fragile and recent financial performance is still weak.
The evidence describes NNBR as cheap versus peers, while also showing a peer premium reading and low confidence in the valuation model, so the valuation picture is uncertain. The priced-in assessment is justified rather than highly fragile, but the expectations gap is negative, suggesting current expectations may still be demanding relative to the evidence.
Near term, Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose to $18.5 million from $12.4 million a year earlier, and Power Solutions sales increased to $63.2 million from $44.9 million. Management says its cost-out program is on track, but has not quantified this quarter’s savings; the new-business goal and capacity expansion also remain items to watch. The recent guidance raise supports momentum, while a reversal and guidance cut would hurt management credibility.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management converting the stated cost and capacity plans into measurable results and progressing toward its 2026 new-business goal. Industrial bellwethers’ earnings and guidance are another swing factor: continued strength could support the sector backdrop, while weaker results could remove that support.
The 1-to-3-year view is a cautious recovery thesis with improving operating evidence, but execution and sector risks remain, and confidence in valuation is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| New business wins target is $80-$90 million. |
| Intact |
| New business wins fall below $80 million in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches $450-$470 million in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in NN Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$460 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $450 million in FY26 | Revenue: $131.1M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$460 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026131,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.22 → $0.20 · observed estimates
$0.49B → $0.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.27 | $499,799,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.27 | $499,799,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.27 | $499,799,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.27 | $499,799,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.27 | $499,799,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.27 | $499,799,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.27 | $499,799,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.27 | $499,799,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.27 | $499,799,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.27 | $503,456,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.22 | $491,404,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.16 | $507,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.19 | $514,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.19 | $514,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.19 | $514,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.19 | $514,590,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.20 | $518,166,666 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.20 | $518,166,666 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.20 | $518,166,666 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.20 | $518,166,666 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.20 | $518,166,666 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.20 | $518,166,666 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.20 | $518,166,666 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.20 | $518,166,666 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.19 | $518,166,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.19 | $519,546,467 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.20 | $525,479,799 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.20 | $525,479,799 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.20 | $525,479,799 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.20 | $525,479,799 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.20 | $528,813,133 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.20 | $528,813,133 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.