Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NNN Reit (NNN)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$41.46-0.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.10 → 2.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NNN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Core FFO per share reaches about $3.51 in 2026 | Management raised Core FFO per share guidance to about $3.51 for 2026. | Intact | Core FFO per share falls below $3.48 in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “ET to discuss third quarter results.” “A live webcast of the conference call will be available on the Company's website at www.nnnreit.com or by using the following link .” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NNN is a real estate income business with a measured growth profile, not a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact: management is delivering on its stated priorities, though recent performance and management quality are rated neutral overall.
Valuation is broadly aligned with the evidence: NNN is about in line with peers, expectations appear justified, and the expectations gap is small. The evidence shows low valuation fragility, but does not provide enough detail to describe the shares as clearly cheap or expensive.
Near term, recent results show progress: Core FFO and AFFO per share rose from the first to the second quarter, and management raised 2026 guidance. Occupancy reached 99.1% while lease terms stayed around 10.1 years, and acquisition guidance also increased. The main execution risk is a reversal in guidance, which could weaken confidence after the recent raise.
The multi-year view depends on continued per-share growth, disciplined acquisitions, and strong occupancy. Near term, Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while weakness among sector peers could remove that support. A guidance cut after the recent increase would be a separate test of management credibility.
As of 2026-10-31, the business evidence supports an intact 1-to-3-year thesis, but the outlook still depends on execution and the sector and rate backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Dividend yield remains near 5% | Dividend yield is stable near 5%. | Under Pressure | Dividend yield falls below 4.5% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 6.9% year-over-year | A primary condition in NNN Reit's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.9% YoY. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 6.9% year-over-year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “ET to discuss third quarter results.” “A live webcast of the conference call will be available on the Company's website at www.nnnreit.com or by using the following link .” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
PE ratio remains justified relative to peers | A supporting condition in NNN Reit's published investment case. The stated target is PE ratio <= 24.08 with growth >= 6.9%. | Improving | PE ratio expands further without growth above 6.9% | Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.10 → $2.10 · observed estimates
$1.02B → $1.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.10 | $1,016,494,697 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.10 | $1,023,616,400 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.10 | $1,023,616,400 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.10 | $1,023,616,400 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.10 | $1,023,616,400 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.10 | $1,016,494,697 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.10 | $1,023,616,400 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.10 | $1,023,616,400 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.10 | $1,016,494,697 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.10 | $1,023,616,400 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.10 | $1,023,616,400 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.10 | $1,023,616,400 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.10 | $1,023,616,400 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.10 | $1,023,616,400 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.09 | $1,019,858,297 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.09 | $1,019,858,297 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.10 | $1,029,721,400 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.09 | $1,019,858,297 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.09 | $1,019,858,297 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.09 | $1,019,858,297 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.09 | $1,019,858,297 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.09 | $1,019,858,297 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.09 | $1,019,858,297 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.09 | $1,019,858,297 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.09 | $1,019,858,297 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.09 | $1,019,858,297 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.10 | $1,025,187,965 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.10 | $1,025,187,965 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.10 | $1,025,187,965 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.10 | $1,025,187,965 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.10 | $1,025,187,965 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.10 | $1,025,187,965 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.10 | $1,025,187,965 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.10 | $1,025,187,965 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.10 | $1,025,187,965 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.11 | $1,024,300,813 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.11 | $1,024,300,813 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.11 | $1,024,300,813 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.11 | $1,024,300,813 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.11 | $1,024,300,813 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.11 | $1,024,368,384 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.11 | $1,024,368,384 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.11 | $1,024,368,384 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.11 | $1,024,368,384 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.11 | $1,024,368,384 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.11 | $1,024,368,384 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.11 | $1,024,368,384 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.11 | $1,024,368,384 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.11 | $1,024,368,384 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.11 | $1,024,368,384 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.11 | $1,024,368,384 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.11 | $1,024,368,384 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.12 | $1,025,022,318 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.12 | $1,025,093,746 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.10 | $1,026,167,496 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.10 | $1,026,315,247 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.10 | $1,026,315,247 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.10 | $1,026,315,247 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.10 | $1,026,315,247 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.10 | $1,026,315,247 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.10 | $1,026,315,247 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.10 | $1,026,315,247 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.10 | $1,026,315,247 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.10 | $1,026,315,247 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.09 | $1,027,068,103 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.09 | $1,027,068,103 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.09 | $1,027,068,103 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.09 | $1,027,068,103 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.09 | $1,027,068,103 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.10 | $1,026,870,410 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.10 | $1,026,870,410 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.10 | $1,026,870,410 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.10 | $1,027,396,262 | 6 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.