Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.92+0.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue at or above $950M in 2025 and $143B in 2026: FY25 rev $950M vs $950M; FY26 rev not reported vs $143B.
Northern Oil keeps buying assets to grow output. It plans $850M to $900M capital spending in 2026. Free cash flow should be at least $30M in 2026. The company pays a steady $0.45 dividend per share.
Revenue dropped sharply from $610M to $5M in one quarter. The company is loss-making and has rising debt. Dividend payout may be at risk due to higher leverage.
The price is about 47% below our fair value near $34. Analysts expect 15% revenue growth. Our view is cautious given recent revenue drops and debt.
Breaks if: Company stops or reverses asset purchases
Breaks if: Dividend payout falls below $0.45 per share
Free cash flow falls below $30 million in 2026
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity within the energy sector. The current thesis state indicates a medium confidence level, with recent performance showing volatility and losses, yet the sector backdrop is favorable.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of expectations, as indicated by a divergence showing NOG is cheap compared to its peers. The valuation reflects a justified stance, but there is a fragility due to the turbulent sector environment.
Fundamentals may remain weak in the near term, as NOG has been loss-making and its recent financial performance is below industry peers. However, management is on track with production and capital expenditure guidance, which could stabilize performance.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the potential for inflation to reaccelerate, which could benefit energy companies like NOG. Additionally, any guidance cuts or negative earnings revisions could significantly impact sentiment and performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $950 million in 2025 or $143 billion in 2026
In the next 1 to 3 years, NOG's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges and execute on its strategic priorities. Not investment advice.