Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$22.14-0.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NOG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 25.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NOG — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-26
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant . The information required by
Why it matters: NOG added acres and wells in Q3, with most spending in oil-focused basins. More deals would show this growth plan is still active.
Supportive ifA later update reports new Ground Game deals and more net acres or wells. Most deal spending is in the Permian, Williston, and Uinta basins.
Worry ifA later update reports no new Ground Game deals, or says spending shifted away from those three basins.
Why it matters: NOG has met this range in the first two quarters. A Q3 result in range would keep its 2026 plan on track.
Supportive ifAt the November 5 earnings release, Q3 production is 143,000 to 148,000 Boe per day.
Worry ifQ3 production is below 143,000 Boe per day or above 148,000 Boe per day.
Why it matters: NOG kept its annual spending range, but Q3 spending rose. The final results will show if full-year spending stays in range.
Worry ifFinal 2026 capital spending tops $900 million.
Less concerning ifFinal 2026 capital spending is $850 million to $900 million, as guided.
Why it matters: Management said Q4 spending should be lower without large unplanned deals. A decline would support its spending plan.
Supportive ifQ4 capital spending is under $250 million. This excludes unplanned deals and other costs.
Worry ifQ4 capital spending is $250 million or more, excluding unplanned deals and other costs.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $483 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,279 loss on $10,000 · 42.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: NOG issued $500 million of notes at 7.500% to repay part of its credit line. The next filing can show how much debt moved.
Worry ifA later filing shows the note proceeds repaid less than $500 million of credit-line debt, or total debt rose.
Less concerning ifA later filing shows the proceeds repaid credit-line debt and total debt did not rise.