Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.92+0.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NOG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NOG — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-26
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant . The information required by
Why it matters: Falling revenue might show bigger problems in how the company runs and market conditions.
Worry ifRevenue for Q2 drops below $5.0M, continuing the trend from Q1.
Less concerning ifRevenue for Q2 stabilizes or grows from the $5.0M reported in Q1.
Why it matters: The Duvernay acquisition could greatly increase production and cash flow. This may enhance long-term value.
Supportive ifProduction from the Duvernay assets exceeds 4,000 Boe per day in 2027.
Worry ifProduction from the Duvernay assets falls short of expectations, below 3,500 Boe per day.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It shows a promise to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifNOG confirms the dividend payout of $0.45 per share in the next earnings announcement.
Worry ifNOG announces a reduction or suspension of the dividend payout.
Why it matters: Active buybacks show trust in the stock. They also show a commitment to shareholders.
Watch forNOG plans more share buybacks beyond the current $243 million limit.
Also watch forNo new share buybacks are announced or done in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$200 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $461 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,279 loss on $10,000 · 42.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More share buybacks would show strong capital use. It shows a commitment to shareholder returns.
Supportive ifTotal share buybacks are over $243 million. This shows strong capital discipline.
Worry ifShare buybacks are under $200 million. This shows weaker capital use.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback show management's trust in the company's value and spending plans.
Supportive ifManagement announces more share buybacks. They raise the program to over $243 million.
Worry ifManagement stops or cuts back the share buyback program.
Why it matters: The Duvernay acquisition could significantly boost NOG's production and asset base. Delays could impact growth plans.
Watch forThe Duvernay acquisition will close by the end of Q2 2026.
Also watch forThere may be delays or problems with the Duvernay acquisition closing.
Why it matters: An update could signal how well NOG is managing its new acquisitions and production levels.
Supportive ifNOG raises its production guidance for Q2 2026 above 148,000 Boe per day.
Worry ifNOG lowers its production guidance for Q2 2026 below 143,000 Boe per day.
Why it matters: Higher natural gas prices would increase revenue. It would help offset recent weak results.
Supportive ifNatural gas prices average over $3.00 per Mcf. This improves the revenue outlook.
Worry ifNatural gas prices are under $2.50 per Mcf. This continues to pressure revenue.
Why it matters: More oil production shows recovery from recent shutdowns. It also supports growth expectations.
Supportive ifIn Q3, oil production averages over 68,250 Bbls per day. This shows recovery from shutdowns.
Worry ifIn Q3, oil production averages under 67,500 Bbls per day. This suggests ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: The closing shows if NOG can handle debt and run operations. It affects cash flow and flexibility.
Supportive ifThe offering will close on August 26, 2026, with funds used as planned.
Worry ifThe offering does not close or there are major changes to how funds will be used.
Why it matters: Strong production growth shows good asset management. It can make investors more confident.
Supportive ifQ2 production averages above 148,000 Boe per day, showing growth from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 production is below 143,000 Boe per day. This shows there are operational problems.
Why it matters: Successful asset purchases can boost financial health and growth.
Supportive ifThere is news of completed asset purchases that can increase revenue.
Worry ifNo asset purchases have been announced. This shows issues with capital use.
Why it matters: Changes in oil and gas prices impact NOG's revenue and profits.
Watch forOil prices rise above $90 per barrel consistently.
Also watch forOil prices fall below $70 per barrel consistently.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending may show plans for growth or financial strain. This can affect cash flow.
Watch forCapital spending is above $900 million. This means the company is investing a lot.
Also watch forCapital expenditures are below $850 million. This shows a more cautious approach.
Why it matters: Recovering revenue growth is key for the company's long-term health and dividend.
Watch forRevenue growth is above 6% from last year. This shows the sector is recovering.
Also watch forRevenue growth is below 6%. This suggests ongoing problems in the sector.
Why it matters: Better pricing would increase cash flow and help profits.
Supportive ifNatural gas prices in the Waha region rise to normal levels.
Worry ifNatural gas pricing remains weak in the Waha region.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good management of new assets. It also means financial stability.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported above $323.6 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $297.2 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing these lines would increase production. It would also support management's guidance for the year.
Supportive ifAll delayed turn-in-lines are done. They are helping production in Q3.
Worry ifSome delayed turn-in-lines are still not finished. This limits production growth.
Why it matters: Changes in production guidance show how well the company is doing and market trends.
Watch forManagement raises Q3 production guidance to over 145,659 Boe per day.
Also watch forManagement lowers Q3 production guidance to below 143,000 Boe per day.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It shows they care about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of $0.45 per share for the next payment.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend to below $0.45 per share. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: More repurchases would show strong support for giving money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases announced are more than $150 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $150 million.
Why it matters: Updating production guidance shows stability. It shows trust in growth despite market changes.
Supportive ifManagement repeats the 2026 production guidance of 143,000 - 148,000 Boe per day in the next call.
Worry ifManagement lowers the production guidance to below 143,000 Boe per day.
Why it matters: Crude prices affect NOG's revenue and profits. Price changes can show market trends.
Watch forCrude oil prices rise above $95 per barrel, improving NOG's earnings outlook.
Also watch forCrude oil prices drop below $80 per barrel. This hurts earnings.