Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NOV Inc. (NOV)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.39-3.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.27 → 1.28 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NOV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sustain dividend per share at or above $0.09 | Dividend per share rose from $0.075 to $0.09, showing strong shareholder returns. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.09 | Dividend per share: $0.09 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.09 USD_PER_SHARE. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 20260.09 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NOV is a cyclical energy-equipment business with a potential operational-improvement story, rather than a steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality remains fragile and confidence is medium.
Valuation is flagged as expensive, and it has risen sharply in the recent period. The evidence also describes NOV as cheap versus peers, so those comparisons point in different directions; overall, the priced-in assessment says expectations are not well supported given execution and sector risks.
Near term, results could remain supported by improving efficiency and higher manufacturing throughput. Revenue and operating income rose from the first to the third quarter of 2026, and management priorities around efficiency, capital returns, and technology show signs of delivery, though Q3 adjusted EBITDA included tariff refunds. Earnings remain fragile, and the next guidance update is a key risk despite recent earnings beats.
The multi-year view depends on NOV sustaining operational gains and converting technology and automation efforts into durable business results. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while continued strength from sector peers could support the energy-sector backdrop; peer misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
Over the next one to three years, NOV’s improving results and management execution support an intact thesis, but fragile earnings quality, sector sensitivity, and an expensive valuation leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in NOV Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=47 USD_MILLIONS. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $47M next quarter |
Operating income: $142M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=47 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 2026142,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue near $1.93B next quarter | The company targets about $1.93B revenue next quarter despite market challenges. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.93B next quarter | Revenue: $2.226B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1.93 USD_BILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 20262,226,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.27 → $1.28 · observed estimates
$9.07B → $9.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.27 | $9,071,405,700 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.27 | $9,071,405,700 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.33 | $9,065,852,105 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.33 | $9,065,852,105 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.27 | $9,071,405,700 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.27 | $9,071,405,700 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.27 | $9,071,405,700 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.27 | $9,105,132,250 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.30 | $9,104,647,340 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.26 | $9,120,073,420 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.30 | $9,104,647,340 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.30 | $9,104,647,340 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.26 | $9,112,426,370 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.30 | $9,104,647,340 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.30 | $9,097,000,281 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.27 | $9,112,426,370 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.27 | $9,112,426,370 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.30 | $9,097,000,281 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.27 | $9,117,535,950 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.27 | $9,117,535,950 | 15 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.30 | $9,097,000,281 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.30 | $9,097,000,281 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.30 | $9,097,000,281 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.30 | $9,097,000,281 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.30 | $9,097,000,281 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.30 | $9,097,000,281 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.28 | $9,099,227,516 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.27 | $9,095,408,096 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.27 | $9,095,408,096 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.27 | $9,095,408,096 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.27 | $9,095,408,096 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.27 | $9,095,408,096 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.27 | $9,095,408,096 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.27 | $9,095,408,096 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.27 | $9,095,408,096 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.27 | $9,084,015,315 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.27 | $9,078,579,747 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.27 | $9,090,226,806 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.27 | $9,087,579,747 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.27 | $9,087,579,747 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.27 | $9,087,579,747 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.27 | $9,087,579,747 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.27 | $9,087,579,747 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.27 | $9,087,579,747 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.27 | $9,139,428,481 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.27 | $9,139,428,481 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.27 | $9,139,428,481 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.27 | $9,139,428,481 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.27 | $9,139,428,481 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.27 | $9,139,428,481 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.27 | $9,136,541,975 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.27 | $9,136,541,975 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.27 | $9,136,541,975 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.27 | $9,136,541,975 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.27 | $9,136,541,975 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.27 | $9,136,535,725 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.27 | $9,132,371,654 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.27 | $9,132,371,654 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.27 | $9,132,371,654 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.27 | $9,132,371,654 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.27 | $9,132,371,654 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.27 | $9,132,371,654 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.27 | $9,132,371,654 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.27 | $9,132,371,654 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.28 | $9,122,868,779 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.27 | $9,121,868,779 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.27 | $9,096,294,144 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.27 | $9,096,294,144 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.27 | $9,096,294,144 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.27 | $9,083,403,741 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.28 | $9,082,227,271 | 12 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.