NOV Inc. (NOV)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$18.03-2.49%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NOV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 66.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 19 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NOV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 27, 2026, NOV Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and conference call in connection therewith. A copy of the release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. A presentation to accompany the conference call, which contains certain historical and forward-looking information relating to the Company (the “ Presentation Materials ”), has been…
Why it matters: Q3 revenue grew as NOV made more products against its backlog. More shipments would show that higher orders are reaching customers.
Supportive ifEnergy Products and Services revenue stays above $1.06B. Management says more drill pipe and composite equipment shipped from its backlog.
Worry ifRevenue falls below $1.06B, or management says backlog shipments slowed.
Why it matters: Q3 adjusted EBITDA included $5M from tariff refunds; Q2 included about $40M. Results without large refunds would better show the business's own progress.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $260M while tariff refund benefits are $5M or less.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA falls below $260M, or meets guidance only with tariff refund gains above $5M.
Why it matters: NOV expects Q4 revenue to be roughly flat year over year. EBITDA in range would show it can manage the expected Middle East slowdown.
Watch forQ4 2026 adjusted EBITDA is $260M–$300M, with revenue roughly flat year over year.
Also watch forQ4 adjusted EBITDA is below $260M or above $300M, or revenue falls year over year.
Why it matters: Q3 orders were below shipments, and capital equipment backlog fell from $4.08B in Q2 to $3.98B in Q3. More orders could steady that backlog.
Worry ifEnergy Equipment book-to-bill reaches 100% or more. Orders at least match shipments.
Less concerning ifBook-to-bill stays below 100%. Capital equipment backlog falls below $3.98B.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$141 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $332 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,706 loss on $10,000 · 17.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.