NOV Inc. (NOV)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.39-0.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NOV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
NOV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-04-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 27, 2026, NOV Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and conference call in connection therewith. A copy of the release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. A presentation to accompany the conference call, which contains certain historical and forward-looking information relating to the Company (the “ Presentation Materials ”), has been…
Why it matters: New contracts would show demand is coming back and help revenue grow soon.
Supportive ifNOV announces new contracts or orders worth over $500 million.
Worry ifNo significant new contracts or orders announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Regular cash returns show that the company is doing well. It shows confidence from management.
Supportive ifCash returned to shareholders will be over $120 million next quarter.
Worry ifCash returned to shareholders will be less than $100 million next quarter.
Why it matters: Rising dividends mean the company values its shareholders. It shows management expects to make more money in the future.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend increase to more than $0.09 per share.
Worry ifThe company maintains the dividend at $0.09 per share or reduces it.
Why it matters: Strong order intake is crucial for future revenue growth and reflects market demand for NOV's products.
Supportive ifNew orders booked in Q3 exceed $500 million.
Worry ifNew orders booked in Q3 fall below $400 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $337 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,706 loss on $10,000 · 17.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends would signal strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns. This aligns with management's focus.
Supportive ifManagement announces a dividend increase of at least 5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifManagement will keep the current dividend the same, with no increase.
Why it matters: Steady dividends show strong cash flow and a commitment to shareholders. This can raise investor trust.
Supportive ifA regular quarterly dividend of at least $0.09 per share is declared.
Worry ifNo dividend is declared or the dividend amount is cut.
Why it matters: More orders would show demand is recovering. This helps revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew orders in Energy Products and Services are over $1 billion.
Worry ifNew orders in Energy Products and Services are under $900 million.
Why it matters: Higher bookings signal demand recovery and growth potential. It reflects the health of NOV's core business.
Supportive ifBookings in the Energy Equipment segment exceed $500 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifBookings in the Energy Equipment segment fall below $400 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More buybacks would show better cash flow. It shows a promise to give back to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases in Q2 2026 exceed $100 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases in Q2 2026 fall below $67 million.
Why it matters: An increase in operating income shows better cost control and efficiency. This is key for long-term profit.
Supportive ifOperating income increases from $47 million in Q1 2026 to above $50 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $47 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A new dividend shows NOV's promise to give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifA new dividend payment will be part of the capital return plan.
Worry ifNo new dividend payment in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in backlog will indicate demand trends. A growing backlog suggests strong future revenue.
Supportive ifCapital equipment backlog rises from $4.08 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCapital equipment backlog falls from $4.08 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This range shows if NOV can stay profitable during market pressures. It shows how well they operate and how strong demand is.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026 lands above $270 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 2026 falls below $240 million.
Why it matters: Higher order bookings indicate strong demand and can signal a recovery in the market. This is key for revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew order bookings exceed $520 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNew order bookings fall below $500 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Cost management is important for NOV. It helps them make more money and work better.
Supportive ifManagement says they will cut operating costs by at least 10% next quarter.
Worry ifNo progress in cost management or a rise in operating costs.
Why it matters: A bigger decline than expected shows ongoing problems with revenue growth. This may hurt investor trust in the company's recovery plans.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue declines more than 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue declines less than 4% year over year or shows growth.
Why it matters: Ongoing disruptions could hurt revenue and profits. This may lower investor confidence.
Worry ifNo big problems were reported in Q3 due to Middle East issues.
Less concerning ifManagement says there were big problems that hurt revenue in Q3.
Why it matters: Increased orders indicate strong demand and can drive future revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew orders booked in Q3 exceed $500 million.
Worry ifNew orders booked in Q3 fall below $400 million.
Why it matters: Management's guidance will show if they expect revenue growth or challenges.
Watch forManagement expects Q3 revenues to be flat or up 2% from last year.
Also watch forManagement expects Q3 revenues to drop compared to last year.