ServiceNow (NOW)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$102.36-5.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NOW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 60 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NOW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
of Form 8-K and is not deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing of ServiceNow under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof and irrespective of any general incorporation language in any filings.
Why it matters: ServiceNow raised its AI contract value target twice this year. Reaching $1.7B would show that customers are paying for its AI tools.
Supportive ifServiceNow reports 2026 AI annual contract value of at least $1.7B.
Worry ifServiceNow reports 2026 AI annual contract value below $1.7B, or lowers the target.
Why it matters: cRPO tracks contract revenue due in the next 12 months. Growth near 20% would support the current sales pace.
Watch forNext quarterly cRPO growth is at least 20% year over year.
Also watch forNext quarterly cRPO growth falls below 18% year over year.
Why it matters: ServiceNow raised its full-year subscription revenue outlook after beating Q3 guidance. Meeting the new range would show demand is holding up.
Supportive ifFY 2026 subscription revenue lands between $15.78B and $15.79B, the range stated in the Q3 release.
Worry ifFY 2026 subscription revenue falls below $15.78B, or ServiceNow cuts that outlook.
Why it matters: Q3 subscription revenue grew 21% year over year, while the tech sector trend is easing. A drop below 20% would point to slower growth.
Worry ifQ4 subscription revenue growth is below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 subscription revenue growth is at least 20% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$219 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $604 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,282 loss on $10,000 · 52.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More use in live customer work can show that AI tools solve real tasks. A slowdown would weaken evidence of customer uptake.
Watch forIn its next update, ServiceNow reports that production AI use is still more than 13 times higher than last year.
Also watch forServiceNow reports production AI use below 13 times last year's level, or reports a drop from last year.
Why it matters: ServiceNow raised its margin target and said it was spending less on equipment. Reaching 36% would back its claim that it can generate cash.
Supportive ifFY 2026 free cash flow margin is at least 36%.
Worry ifFY 2026 free cash flow margin is below 36%, or ServiceNow lowers the target.