ServiceNow (NOW)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$141.26-2.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NOW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers
NOW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-22
of Form 8-K and is not deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing of ServiceNow under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, whether made before or after the date hereof and irrespective of any general incorporation language in any filings.
Why it matters: If it goes over $1.5 billion, it shows strong market acceptance of ServiceNow's AI.
Supportive ifAI Control Tower's annual contract value was above $1.5 billion.
Worry ifAI Control Tower's annual contract value was below $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: Strong adoption numbers would show that ServiceNow's AI tools are working well.
Supportive ifServiceNow plans to report over 1,500 active uses of AI Control Tower soon.
Worry ifFewer than 1,500 active uses show slower growth.
Why it matters: Revenue from AI workflows can show how well ServiceNow is doing with innovation.
Watch forRevenue from AI-driven workflows exceeds $500 million in Q3.
Also watch forRevenue from AI-driven workflows falls below $300 million in Q3.
Why it matters: New large contracts would show strong demand for ServiceNow's platform. This supports its growth plan.
Supportive ifServiceNow announces over 20 deals worth more than $5 million in new annual contracts.
Worry ifFewer than 10 transactions over $5 million in new annual contract value.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$259 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $594 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,682 loss on $10,000 · 56.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: News about share buybacks shows how much management trusts the company's money.
Watch forThere was news of more share buybacks or speeding up the current program.
Also watch forNo updates or changes to the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Higher RPO growth shows strong future revenue and customer demand.
Supportive ifRPO growth exceeds 25% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifRPO growth falls below 20% year-over-year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New large contracts show strong demand and growth for ServiceNow's platform.
Supportive ifAt least 20 new contracts over $5 million in net new annual contract value in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 10 new contracts over $5 million in net new annual contract value in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: New partnerships may help ServiceNow's market position. They could also increase AI use.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new strategic partnership with a major tech firm.
Worry ifNo new strategic partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The Armis acquisition may help ServiceNow grow. It could also boost its market position.
Supportive ifRevenue growth speeds up after the Armis acquisition.
Worry ifRevenue growth slows or remains flat post-acquisition.
Why it matters: A rise in cRPO shows strong demand and future revenue.
Supportive ifcRPO grows year-over-year by more than 22.5%.
Worry ifcRPO growth is less than 22.5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: New AI-driven products can drive customer interest and revenue growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new AI products in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo new AI-driven product announcements in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The Armis purchase will make ServiceNow's security products better. Delays could slow growth.
Supportive ifThere is a news release saying the Armis purchase is done.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed past Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New partnerships could improve ServiceNow's market position. This may lead to more revenue.
Supportive ifThere was an announcement of new partnerships with major tech companies.
Worry ifNo new strategic partnerships announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in free cash flow guidance can show shifts in financial health and efficiency.
Watch forManagement raises free cash flow margin guidance for 2026 by more than 250bps year-over-year.
Also watch forManagement cuts the free cash flow margin forecast for 2026. It is now below 250bps year-over-year.
Why it matters: Management is buying back shares. This shows they care about how to use money well.
Supportive ifServiceNow plans to repurchase at least $1 billion in shares in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases or a cut in planned repurchase amounts.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may mean less demand for ServiceNow's services.
Worry ifQ3 subscription revenue growth was below 22% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 subscription revenue growth stayed above 22% compared to last year.
Why it matters: More use of AI would show that ServiceNow's AI works well and helps growth.
Supportive ifAI Control Tower use grew by over 50% compared to last year.
Worry ifAI Control Tower adoption metrics show a year-over-year increase of less than 20%.
Why it matters: New announcements will focus on managing dilution. They will also show smart spending.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks over $1 billion.
Worry ifNo new buyback announcements or a cut in the buyback program.